MLB 2018-19 Offseason Thread

So what's Harper going to get from the Phillies now that they have no backup plan? I'm thinking Boras porks them for 10/$340M, so that Harper gets the highest AAV contract in history.

 

I'm curious why the Padres waited so long if they were going to throw $300M at Machado anyway. Seems like they could have gotten him to sign for that kind of money in December and not risked losing him to the Phillies for $280M or something like that.

With Spring Training open, I didn't think Machado was going to get close to $300M.

 

Feinsand is reporting that Machado has an opt-out after year 5, which makes this deal that much better for the Padres. If they aren't contending by 2022, they trade him a year before his opt-out and haul in some prospects before Machado begins declining.

 

I don't see how the opt-out helps the Pads.

 

Because Machado will almost certainly opt out and they can bid him adieu after his age 31 season. Do you really think they want to pay him $150 million for his age 32, 33, 34, 35 and 36 seasons?

In the meantime, they get a legitimate 5-year window to build a championship-caliber team around Machado, Tatis Jr., etc., attendance spikes, and they reap the financial reward during Machado's prime. If they are unable to build a contender, the opt-out makes the contract more tradeable.

Opt-outs are sneakily the team's best friend. The player takes the heat from fans for opting out, and the team gets to avoid paying big money for declining production.

Injuries can throw a wrench into the equation (particularly in Year 5), but they're a risk in any guaranteed contract.

 

I'm not saying he's going to be declining at age 31. I'm saying the Padres can let him walk before he begins his decline. They're going to pay him $30M/year for his prime and won't likely have to pay him for his declining seasons in the last three or four years of the deal.

The opt-out makes him more tradeable because a team can make a deal for him after year 4, knowing he's likely to opt out after Year 5.

And the market will undoubtedly change five years from now. I'd be stunned if he doesn't opt out. Who was the last Boras client that didn't opt out?

 

Tell that to Jason Heyward.

 

Phillies GM. Wonder what "value" they have on Bryce Harper?

 

Given how long and tedious this shit has been with Machado, I'm gonna say that waiting till it's actually done, done is fine by me. Who knows, Machado might not pass the physical...

 

I'd assume that they have wisely learned the model of the Cubs & Astros. Load up on young position players and go et the pitching when you're ready to win.