Official Running NCAA/March Madness thread

I hate college basketball.

Hated it a lot more 45 minutes ago, though.

 

What is, roughly, the highest money line you can bet and still win anything of significance?
I did some math on a parlay calculator with the odds for the 1- and 2-seeds, wondering if the parlay odds would offset the astronomical money line odds for the games in the first two rounds. Didn't seem like it did at all.

 

Care to revise?

 

And at least the third team in recent history. Coastal Carolina led Virginia at the half in 2014.

 

Funny how Virginia keeps popping up in these sorts of things.

 

I had Tennessee -365 today. That got a little sweaty. Lots of moderate dogs are covering the spread and even my trusty “first half under totals” weren’t more than 50-50 first round.

Duke is -13 and -1200 ML right now. That’s a lot for a team that, while dominant, can’t shoot threes. One cold day and they’re done.

Yesterday, I thought Sparty -450 and Auburn -145 were great value and they paid off nicely.

 

Anything over about minus-400 just isn't worth the time and risk, though, right? At least for small-time bettors laying $10 and $20 a game?
I put $20 down on a -450 money line and I win $4 and change. Even if it's essentially free money that hardly seems worth it.

 

I think Virginia crushes Oklahoma tonight. Oklahoma had far and away its best shooting game of the season against Ole Miss and is otherwise pretty mediocre. They seem like the classic tournament team that plays one great game and then lays the turd in round two.

 

Unless you’re doing something as part of a larger play.

What I do is I look at the bracket and I pick 12 teams that will NOT will it all. Generally Power 5 schools. I bet against them on the money line until they lose. My goal is to profit $100 on each team when they lose.

Had a good start as Iowa State, Wisconsin and a few others lost as favorites. Temple lost early. So did Nevada. Kansas and Villanova came through for me in the second round.

Example. I lost against Minnesota on Thursday. I put up $160 to win $100. Lost it. So I had to come back over the top last night on Sparty -450. This required $1175 in action last night on MSU. That won. Paid $265 so I made $105 profit. Never had a doubt they’d beat Minnesota.

Had to do the same with Iowa today. Won it but had a lot out there.

Only ones left for me to need to lose are Oklahoma, Purdue and Virginia Tech. Only putting $40 on Liberty ML at +375.

That Oklahoma game will be a big swallow for me. I’ll need $1,300 to win $220 (which covers the Ole Miss-OU loss and profits $100).

 

Makes sense. Once you scale up the numbers like that it does become a lot more efficient, and it sounds like your method pays out in the long run.
Still too rich for my blood, though. The most I've bet on any single game since I started this venture was $40, and the most I've had in play on a given day/weekend was $100. Even then I was nervous. I'd be throwing up buckets and hunting for divorce lawyers if I had $1,100 in play.

I might try something similar to what you're doing on a smaller scale, though. Back in February I put down a $20 futures bet on Tennessee at 10-1 odds. I figure now that they're through the first two rounds I can start hedging them at some point and at least recoup that. Just have to figure out when to pull the trigger and for how much, whether to do it next weekend when they'll probably be a favorite at least against Purdue or to wait and see if they get to the Final Four and do it then.

 

JEEZ the they back load the games on Sunday.
It's almost 6:00 eastern and they've played 2 games.

 

It pays off until you get a team like Oklahoma that shoots 13 for 24 tonight from 3 and wins. Then I’ll have to think about whether it’s worth dropping whatever the number is for them to lose in the sweet 16.

Even if it loses, still well ahead for the year. The 2018 college football season was my first truly profitable one and then AAF unders the first four weeks were magnificent.

Even for the tourney, I’m up $900 on these plays. And up a few hundred on the first half unders. I’ll be okay either way.

Definitely a nice bi product of the divorce. No nagging. More money as I’m a saver and was married to a spender. May even go full cliche and get an Audi.