President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

You are not putting yourself out on a limb if you suggest an incumbent has an excellent chance if the economy is holding up. That is always the case.

But,

1) Despite his (and Kevin Hassett's, Larry Kudlow's, Steve Moore's) narratives, the economy is sick. That predates him, and he did things (a massive fiscal stimulus in the form of increased spending and tax cuts) that created a short-term boost, but which now come with payback for the spending it pulled forward (which is going to be in the past). Add that to the little economic anchors he has saddled us with, most notably the tariffs, that are still working themselves through and might create drag well into the future. The sick economy (made sick over decades) is what got Trump elected in the first place. It had been reduced to an economy working for a very small percentage of people, while many of the masses have been left in the dust. I don't know what savior those people turn to this time, but can you really bet it's going to be the guy they turned to last time who has (predictably) not made their lives magically better? Maybe. Incumbents get a huge leg up. But. ...

2) Trump is not a typical incumbent. He is the porn-star president. Morally bankrupt, a serial liar, the jerk who has empowered racism and hatred, undermined the constitution and has made us a laughing stock everywhere else. Who knows how many people who voted for him are now disgusted? Also, a lot had to go right for him to win last time, including the other major party putting up an odious candidate and him squeeking through in some rust belt states that he is not a lock to win again given how close they were last time. Particularly, because living in those places still sucks and might even be sucking worse by the next election. Let's say a bunch of working-class women who voted for him last time, are now disgusted because they still are struggling to make ends meet, and on top of it, they are sick of the racism and sexism and the lies and the morally dubious behavior. That alone can have him getting trounced next time around if the other party doesn't blow it by getting someone controversial nominated to make it a crummy choice for a lot of people again.

Let's wait and see. A lot can happen between now and then, but I'd say for an incumbent he has done more to potentially lose votes that would typically be automatic for an incumbent than he has gained. Let's see who he is running against next time.