2019 MLB Regular Season running thread

They need to hand Rendon a blank check.

 

Look closer- I just heard a podcast on this. He is the worst player in the league with no runners on but just about the best with runners on, and even better with runners in scoring position. He is helping them win games.

 

That’s not a replacement- they could have had both.

 

... but not both AND Patrick Corbin, whose WAR is also > Harper this year.

 

He’s hitting .368 RISP. .344 with men on.
.222 ‘late and close’ .223 in tie games. .238 with in 1 run

Odd assortment

 

Oh he will.....in 2023

 

Harper suffers from two things -- Trout Comparison Syndrome and hype fatigue.

He's 26 years old, been a six-time All-Star, a Rookie of the Year and an MVP. His OPS-plus for his career is 136.

His most similar batters through his age are, in order, Andruw Jones, Griffey Jr., Justin Upton, Sierra, Frank Robinson, Trout, Cabrera, Conigliaro, Canseco and Eddie Mathews.

His career WAR makes him the 83rd best right field of all-time. At 26.

 

OPS is a shitty evaluation metric for hitters.

You're on much better ground using his wRC+, which is 137.

However, at some point people are going to have to admit his 2015 season was an outlier and he's merely very above average, not Hall of Fame-bound.

 

I used OPS-plus, not OPS

And he is on a Hall of Fame-bound track. Most 26 year olds don't have this type of resume.

But if I did use OPS, only seven active players, minimum 3,000 plate appearances have a higher one -- in order Trout, Votton, Cabrera, Pujols, Goldschmidt, and Stanton. For his career, he is 68th in OPS, and 35 of them have been inducted into the Hall of Fame.

 

Use OPS all you like. Or even OPS+. And I'll continue to point out there are better tools to evaluate players.

Also, Harper's defense, never good to begin with, will only get worse. And he's stuck on an NL team for the foreseeable future.

If he doesn't win another MVP or a title at some point, he's not making the Hall.

 

He has 12 years left on his contract. If he averaged his worst full season so far, he's on pace for 1,912 runs, 2,681 hits, 621 doubles, 612 homers, 1,795 RBI and 2,223 walks

 

I'm stuck on Harper. His story leading up to being drafted is, I think, unique in the history of the MLB draft. He delivered on all the predictions by getting to the majors at 19. But he has never become the awesome player people expected.

Making the majors as a regular at age 19 is a great predictor for being a Hall of Famer. Harper suffers from the fact that he has been around the same level of production since he broke in. After he made it, the expectation was that he would be amazing and it hasn't happened.