President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Preface to say that I think that Mike Bloomberg, the politician, is a putz -- it's his ego and hubris. Mike Bloomberg, the man, is not. He is a very smart, very serious person when it comes to business, at least. I always got the feeling he ran for mayor of NY, because he heard the mayor can go to all the good parties, and he was looking for that at that point in his life.

A few things about what you said. ... If Bloomberg enters, he won't be playing around. This isn't Howard Schultz or Tom Steyer, in a number of ways. First, they are actually pretty poor monetarily compared to Bloomberg. Bloomberg is one of only 5 or 6 people in the U.S. for whom a self-funded presidential race would be chump change. Bloomberg can easily sit still, let the field of candidates spend millions of dollars trying to win Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina and blow through their wads, and then mosey on in, in time to run in some of the states that allow independents to vote in the primaries. And he can spend what it would take without blinking an eye. Schultz was not willing to spend that way, and on top of it, he couldn't take the criticism. ... something Bloomberg will do, and roll his eyes like he is above Elizabeth Warren, before doing his best, "I am the moderate voice of reason" pitch. He will also be able to get the message across that you don't make poor people rich by making rich people poorer, way better than those others are able to, because they fall into the trap of apologizing for their wealth. My sense is that is because Bloomberg doesn't try to do the "man of the people" thing, he doesn't seem phony, and at their heart, the majority of people don't think success is bad.

Where Bloomberg has his problems is that he's a short, old Jewish man (although he won't come across as old as Biden, I think), which maybe can be OK in the democratic primary, but I am not sure how that is ready to play in a general election. Minorities will never warm to him; just ain't happening. And in fact, he's just not a warm person at all, which won't play well in national politics for him. He is aloof.

He may have actually done better running as an independent. But he is such a meticulous person, and has a polling operation that is supposedly ridiculously good, so if he is running as a Democrat, he is cleary seeing that 1) There is a big swath of Democrats who are turned off by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and not happy, and 2) Joe Biden is sinking and doesn't provide that alternative, and Mayor Pete ain't making enough inroads.

The calculation would be that he could swoop in and be that candidate.

 

1) Obama's shadow wasn't big enough to cover Hillary Clinton's warts. ...against Donald Trump, where you'd think any amount of that shadow would have made a difference. If Biden keeps fumbling, and he is going to, there is no shadow in the world he can hide under.
2) You are right. Bloomberg is not one of them. He's been a Democrat, Republican, Independent. And *gasp* he is a Billio(wait, that's a dirty word)! But not being one of the Democrats is only a hindrance if you need to raise a ton of money. So no big deal for him. He just needs to get his name on the ballots (it's already done), and then score well enough in 10 to 15 of the states that allow independents to vote in the primary in order to build momentum. I'm not saying it is going to happen, but it COULD happen. Don't forget, Donald Trump was not one of the Republicans. They wanted Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio. But the actual voters had different ideas.

 

Could be right. I am talking about just getting the nomination, not the general election. Hillary Clinton had black voters. At least in the primaries, where it made a big difference, because black people didn't get Bernie Sanders at all. Maybe she didn't inspire enough of them to vote in the general election, and it cost her. I am not sure Biden will do much better, but maybe I am wrong. If he does, I think it'll be more about Donald Trump inspiring more people to vote. ... against him.

I hate generalizing and treating a race like it does things in lockstep, but my guess would be that Biden will get a decent number of black people's votes in the primary. I will also make an educated guess that that will not be an area of strength for Mike Bloomberg, if he is in. Bloomberg really needs to tap into a surge in people who think of themselves as more independent, moderate-minded (whatever that means) democrats (or actual independents), if he is going to have any success. I suspect he has been doing work that tells him those people exist and are looking for someone. If he enters, guess we'll see if that is true and it is right.