NCAA Week 14

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vegasinsider.com

• No. 1 LSU (-17) (62.5) vs. Texas A&M | 7 p.m. Saturday | ESPN
• No. 2 Ohio State (-8.5) (51) at No. 10 Michigan | 12 p.m. Saturday | FOX
• No. 3 Clemson (-27) (51.5) at South Carolina | 12 p.m. Saturday | ESPN
• No. 4 Georgia (-28.5) (46) at Georgia Tech | 12 p.m. Saturday | ABC
• No. 5 Alabama (-3.5) (50) at No. 16 Auburn | 3:30 p.m. Saturday | CBS
• No. 6 Utah (-28.5) (49) vs. Colorado | 7:30 p.m. Saturday | ABC
• No. 7 Oklahoma (-13) (69.5) at No. 21 Oklahoma State | 8 p.m. Saturday | FOX
• No. 8 Florida (-17.5) (53.5) at Florida State | 7:30 p.m. Saturday | SEC Network
• No. 9 Minnesota vs. No. 13 Wisconsin (-2.5) (47.5)| 3:30 p.m. Saturday | ABC
• No. 11 Baylor (-14) (52.5) at Kansas | 3:30 p.m. Saturday | ESPN
• No. 12 Penn State (-40) (49) vs. Rutgers | 3:30 p.m. Saturday | Big Ten Network
• No. 14 Oregon (-19) (67.5) vs. Oregon State | 4 p.m. Saturday | Pac-12 Network
• No. 15 Notre Dame (-16.5) (51.5) at Stanford | 4 p.m. Saturday | FOX
• No. 17 Memphis (-11) (57.5) vs. No. 18 Cincinnati | 3:30 p.m. Friday | ABC
• No. 19 Iowa (-5.5) (43.5) at Nebraska | 2:30 p.m. Friday | Big Ten Network
• No. 20 Boise State (-13.5) (57.5) at Colorado State | 3:30 p.m. Friday | CBSSN
• No. 22 Appalachian State (-13) (64) at Troy | 6 p.m. Friday | ESPN+
• No. 23 Virginia Tech (-3) (48) at Virginia | 12 p.m. Saturday | ABC
• No. 24 Navy (-8.5) (58.5) at Houston | 7 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 30 | ESPN2

 

Minor quibble: FSU-Florida is in Gainesville this year. And how lousy do the Seminoles have to be for that game to wind up on the SEC Network?

 

Obviously large stakes in the Virginia Tech-Virginia game. Neither fan base is happy with the start time. Might be the last time for awhile that it's on Black Friday.

 

Surprised Wisconsin is favored vs Minn...what am I missing?

 

Wisconsin may be more of a public team than Minny?

 

Wisconsin is favored 2.5 at home, basically the value of home field advantage.

 

Did you see what happened when Minnesota went to Iowa two weeks ago?

 

Game's in Minny

 

Ahh the order of the teams confused me.

If that's the case, Chef. The Florida-FSU game at Florida.

 

Sagarin's rating has Wisconsin 9th and Minnesota 20th, with Wisconsin 7+ points better on a neutral field, and it says Wisconsin's schedule is stronger. The two teams have five common opponents; in those games, each went 4-1, and the results were about even or a slight edge to Minnesota. As for their other conference opponents, Minnesota went 3-0 against Penn State, Maryland, and Rutgers, while Wisconsin went 2-1 against Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State. Out of conference, Minnesota beat San Diego State by 7, Fresno State by 3, and Georgia Southern by 3, while Wisconsin beat South Florida, Central Michigan,and Kent State by a combined 158-0.

 

It's either going to be a close, high-scoring UVA win or a VT blowout.

 

Been on quite the heater the past month or so. I'm 25-7-1 on games I've actually bet on over the past five weeks, and went 6-0-1 last week.
Which means I'll probably go 0-9 this time. So follow me at your own risk.
Games I love this week:

Friday
• Virginia Tech -3 @ Virginia - Virginia Tech seems to be finishing strong
• UCF -24 1/2 vs. USF - C is better than S.
• Boise State -13 1/2 @ Colorado State - Boise is also finishing strong, and won't let up with a possible New Year's 6 game on the line.

Saturday
• Ohio State -9 @ Michigan - The Big Ten has made me a lot of money over the past five weeks, mostly from games like this where you get a modest line against two teams that are very far apart in terms of skill. It's like Vegas doesn't watch the Big Ten at all.
• Georgia -28 1/2 @ Georgia Tech - Georgia is slumping a bit on offense, but playing a bad Georgia Tech team should cure that.

• Tennessee -22 @ Vanderbilt - A big line, but Tennessee has come on nicely since its awful September. I think it wins big here.
• Clemson -27 @ South Carolina - Style points matter now, and Clemson knows it. They'll run up the score if they can.

• LSU -17 vs. Texas A&M - LSU, apparently, is pretty pissed about last year's seven-overtime game and is in a position to do something about it. Texas A&M has been covering these big spreads against top teams, but I think LSU wins this by three touchdowns.
• New Mexico State +14 @ Liberty - A rare game that we have an idea how it'll go, since they play a home-and-home series. Liberty won 20-13 at Las Cruces in October. Neither team should be laying 14 points against anybody.
(EDIT: Wrote this one wrong earlier, because I read it as Liberty +14. Liberty is favored. Either way, the logic holds. Neither team is good enough to be 14-point favorites against the other.)

• Wyoming +10 1/2 at Air Force - Two decent Mountain West teams, and another one where the line just seems too high.
• Illinois -9 vs. Northwestern - One last Big Ten game where it seems like Vegas has not been paying attention to just how big a gap there is between the various tiers of the conference.

• Notre Dame -16 1/2 @ Stanford - Stanford is finishing with a whimper and, despite losing a couple of key games, Notre Dame has beaten the crap out of struggling teams like the Cardinal
• UAB +1 1/2 @ North Texas - UAB has a lot to play for and North Texas is slumping to the finish.