President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

The Eeyore shit is how we got Trump in the first place. People just weren't excited last time around. Here we are.

Seriously, Fox News polls are finding a majority of people wanted him impeached. He does polling and then fires the pollsters when he sees the results.

I mean, maybe he wins. I didn't think he could the first time. But let's not pretend he's inevitable. A whole lotta people hate his guts.

 

Which is why pre-predicting defeat is so sad to me.

 

Part of it is where I live. My district is something like 86 percent blue. I guess I could campaign in other states? I don't know. But my vote matters no more than a dem's vote in Arkansas does. That's the problem. This election will be decided in like six or seven states, thanks to the Electoral College. (Not a rant against, that, by the way, just reality.) It is what it is. /booger

 

Trump will have to find a new narrow path to 270. He won’t have Michigan this time and probably won’t have Pennsylvania and Wisconsin either. That means he’ll have to flip several blue states that didn’t go for him last time — a pretty tall order.

He’ll have his 40 percent, but 60-40 in a presidential election is an ass whipping.

 

Can't speak for Wisconsin, but Trump almost certainly won't have Pennsylvania.

 

It’s all turnout. If Dem coalition turns out, the Dems win. So, as said as said before, much will depend on the candidate.

I don’t think Dem enthusiasm/anger has fallen off since the 2018 Blue Wave.

 

He's not gained support. Subtraction is not going to be a winning path.

 

They don’t want his friendship. They want to grift with him. They’re looking to make a profit.

 

It might be six or seven counties that decide it.

 

Today, I say Trump loses because I think Mayor Pete is a little bit ahead. He’s stayed out of the impeachment fray for the most part.

 

He could lose Wisconsin and Michigan --- or Wisconsin and Pennsylvania --- and still win without flipping any blue states.

And FWIW, Clinton won four of the eight closest states in 2016 (2. NH, 6. MN, 7. NV, 8. ME). It went largely unnoticed because 1. she lost, and 2. they're only 24 EVs. But if Trump picks off one of those, it dilutes somewhat his losing of 2-3 others.