President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

I wouldn't count on anything. Wisconsin has had a lot of issues pop up regarding voter registration and disenfranchisement. Michigan has a boatload of problems. Pennsylvania is one of the oldest demographics in the nation.

Yes, they could vote blue. They could also back Trump fully.

 

By every metric known to political science, Trump should be cruising to a 35-40 state victory thanks to the economy. But nobody, not even him, thinks that's how things stand now or will 306 days from now. That's the conundrum. Can Trump turn himself into enough of a Plain Old President in the next 11 months to make the fundamentals work for him? Honestly, if he announced everything was great and he was going to just hang out at the golf course the rest of the year, I'd bet a grand on him.

 

The Grapes of Wrath of Don

 

Something major will happen before the election. Either we have a major terrorist attack or something happens to him, either a health issue or an assassination attempt, and the playing field switches.

The world is too much on edge for something not to happen. Jan 2020 USA, I think, is not going to resemble October 2020 USA.

We could also have a major environmental event or Australia could still be on fire.

 

In the 1950s, some reporter asked British Prime Minister Harold MacMillan what would set the tone for politics in a coming year. "Events dear boy. Events" was his response. Eventually he resigned when one of his cabinet ministers confessed to an affair with a prostitute who was also sleeping with a Russian spy. I agree with your premise, but also believe that it's useless to even speculate on what such a decisive event could be. In a way, political forecasting is like NFL preseason forecasting. Everybody knows that injuries will be decisive events for many teams, but since individual injuries are impossible to forecast, everyone pretends they won't happen.

 

However Trump's presidency ends, this song will be playing:

 

Poll: White evangelicals distinct on abortion, LGBT policy

 

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss

 

Castro out of the race for the nomination.

 

Yep. Abortion's the thing for a lot of evangelical voters. It isn't for me - as against it as I may be - but there isn't any mystery on that. It's been the thing for a long time. A shift from the Democrats on that would force evangelicals to decide whether they're actually Christians - I'm not sure all of them are - or just moralists.

 

How could you tell?

Was he ever in it?