2019-20 college football coaching carousel

College football has really painted itself into a corner. All that matters is the playoff. Great, but there are 10 teams, tops, a season, that realistically have a shot at the playoffs. So a lot of programs have to re-calibrate their expectations. And the way the bloated bowl schedule has been stretched, the secondary goal of making it to a NY6 game has been rendered pointless. The Cotton Bowl was buried on a Saturday afternoon before the playoff games. No one cared. I forgot it was even on. The Orange Bowl was stuffed on a random Monday before New Year's. If I didn't live in Virginia or Florida, I don't think I would have even remembered it was on. The Rose Bowl is the only one out of the six that still has cachet on its own.

 

The conference title games are de facto playoff games. Oklahoma-Baylor was close. Ohio State-Wisconsin was close for awhile. The other two (not counting Pac-12 because its teams were already out of playoff contention) were blowouts. An expansion to an eight-team playoff would not necessarily mean all first round routs. This year it probably would have, but that's because three teams were so strong. Imagine if the pre-BCS bowl system was still in place. LSU would've killed somebody in the Sugar to finish undefeated, Clemson ditto in the Orange and Ohio State would've beaten Oregon in the Rose (might have been a competitive game) to be undefeated as well. Not every season will feature three such dominant teams.

 

To me it seems like the best teams (top 5 or 6) are really a significant cut above the rest on any given year. You get down into the teens and they may as well be FCS schools in comparison. It's especially noticeable in pass defense, the rush and quality of the secondary. Shoot, Burrow was sacked four times by Clemson and still won going away.
Another sidenote: Californias top two HS qbs are headed to Alabama and Clemson. Recruiting is getting way more lopsided.

 

Why would Memphis or any G5 school gotten in? They would probably have a top 10 criteria for them. Baylor? No the second place Big XII team isn't getting in either with zero quality wins. Probably looking at a third SEC team to be honest. And maybe a second B10 team like Wisconsin.

 

I think you're ending up with something closer to LSU-Wisconsin, Ohio State-Florida or whatever third SEC team would get in, Clemson-Oregon, Oklahoma-Georgia.

And there's a likelihood of an upset in that group and a more competitive playoff.

 

LSU's QB was a lightly-recruited bounceback transfer. The Super Bowl QBs played at Texas Tech and Eastern Illinois. My memory isn't what it used to be but I can't remember the last Super Bowl QB from Alabama, Clemson or Ohio State. The No. 1 QB recruit is a bust, more often than not.

 

If they go to eight - all P5 champs will be in, plus the top G5 conference champ and two at larges - my seedings came from the final pre-bowol Playoff rankings.

 

Bottom line is that a team that does not start the season in the Preseason Top 25 has little chance to make the playoff. Functionally, this means that any Cinderella G5 team is screwed out of a slot before the first game is played. G5's have to be unbeaten for three years to even get a sniff.

 

Off the top of my head, I can't think anyone since Ken Stabler.

 

Man - dove in to some past Rivals rankings. As much as I bash the NFL for their bad QB evaluations - seeing the top QB college recruits in the past 15 years - makes you wonder. These are the "elite" HS qbs mostly going to great programs with strong offensive lines and they still don't develop.

 

Alabama produces a lot of great players, but it hasn't exactly been a quarterback factory in a long time. It's only had three QBs even reach the NFL since 1980 (Brodie Croyle, Greg McIlroy and A.J. McCarron).
Since 2000, the schools with the most Super Bowl QBs are Boston College, Cal and Delaware, with two each.

 

No question. You look at the past 15-20 years and probably two G5 teams would be considered for an eight-team playoff. Probably the 2009 Boise State team that went 14-0 and won the Fiesta Bowl and maybe the 2018 UCF team if only because they were undefeated the year before and like you said, would've started the following season in the preseason top 25.