President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

There are six states in future months with as many or more delegates at stake than the entire February slate (Iowa, NH, Nevada and SC) combined. This is preseason football.

 

If you looked at the exit polls, you'd find that some of Buttigieg and Klobuchar's backing is from the Sanders/Warren block. Progressives, especially, gravitated more toward Klobuchar than Warren in New Hampshire.

Also, again, the biggest issue is you comparing 2016 to 2020. A binary choice between Sanders/Clinton is going to produce very, very different results than when there are far more options with varying crossover appeal.

 

This was a money post.

 

I do think the stronger showing of "Not Bernie" this year compared to four years ago has as much if not more to do with NH's long history of not rubberstamping the Iowa results. Seven of nine primaries since 1980 not involving an incumbent President (Kerry,Gore) for the Dems and six of six of GOP primaries not involving an incumbent President have had different winners between Iowa and New Hampshire. The only year where the eventual nominee didn't win either was '92 (Tsongas, Harkin).

 

New Hampshire also has a pretty spotty history of electing the eventual Democratic nominee when there isn't an incumbent.

2016 - Sanders won, Clinton ended up as the nominee.
2008 - Clinton won, Obama was the nominee
2004 - Kerry won
2000 - Gore won, but he was also largely unchallenged
1992 - Paul Tsongas won, Clinton was the nominee.

 

Who you got? Who’s “the candidate.”

 

Yeah, obviously having more (better?) options than Bernie/Hillary is going to have very different results. And those results have to be worrisome to Sanders because he's not in a race against Hillary. He's in a race against other candidates whom the voters of New Hampshire seem to prefer more than him (by plurality).

I don't really get your point here. You're saying Sanders should not be worried that the 3-1 lead he held in 2013 evaporated into a damn near dead heat when faced with other candidates?

 

Of this group I like Klobuchar the most. Solid qualifications, minimal baggage.

I'm OK with Warren, Biden, and probably Bloomberg. Solid qualifications, lotta baggage.

Buttigieg seems like a nice, smart guy. I'd like a president to have a resume.

Bernie is a disaster in waiting.

 

No, he shouldn't be worried. He's just in a different game against a different opponent.

To make this a true sports analogy, Sanders was Butler against Clinton's Duke in 2016. Duke has a lot of supporters. It's a well-known brand. But it's also a name people love to hate. It's easy to pick sides in that match-up.

This year, there's no Duke. There's no Kentucky. Fittingly, it's looking a lot like Lunardi's bracketology right now, where Gonzaga and San Diego State are No. 1 seeds and Dayton is a No. 2 seed. There's no clear cut bad guy and there are a lot more interesting options.

 

Fair enough. We’ll see.

 

I do find this period of time fascinating and really think the next three weeks will decide the election. Between Bloomberg's debut on the debate stage and the results in Nevada and SC, how much gas the campaigns have left in the tank after NH and Iowa, the various oppo dumps that are bound to happen - and how much the national polling changes in light of the last week's results - hell, Mayor Pete was below 10 percent in nationally in a poll today. Klobuchar under 5. Anything can happen.