Pre-Super Tuesday Presidential poll

It remains unclear, though, which states that were blue in 2016 would turn red if Sanders were the nominee. Would any? Is Sanders so unsavory that a blue state would turn red? Doubtful.

You’re right, though, tonight was a disappointment for Sanders. I think it’s still whomever has the better showing in the swing that’s that should decide the nomination.

 

If it were Sanders versus Trump, I do think Sanders would perform well in the blue collar states. I think there's some appeal for him in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Maybe Ohio. But I think North Carolina would be unreachable - he lost even in Chapel Hill and Durham tonight - and I think Virginia would be at risk of going back to red despite the gains there in recent years.

New Mexico, too, would likely flip back to red.

Sanders would likely have to nail Michigan and either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin to offset potential losses in Virginia and New Mexico. And that likely wouldn't be enough to win the election.

 

Bernie is for banning fracking. That's a non-starter in PA. Trump would beat him there.

 

It's nuts how well Biden did with so little money and field staff in most of the states he won. Looking ahead, unless Bernie can suddenly lure voters he hasn't already (and the consistency of his message is good, but also limiting), he can win Washington and Idaho next week - and that will be seen as another loss for Bernie. That's really been the story of his campaign - he's expecting the revolution to come to him - he's not even meeting voters halfway.

 

A non-political component in all of this no one is talking about? Coronavirus.

It's here and it's the biggest public health threat in ages.

People have seen that maybe, just maybe, we need an adult in charge instead of someone who blames a fucking pandemic on the media and the opposition party, even going to the point of claiming the virus itself is a hoax, with his idiot true believers actually believing it. And then putting a clown like Mike Pence in charge of its management. And showing how transparent he is in that all he cares about is coronavirus's impact on the market.

This might, finally, be the "he went too far" moment those who detest Trump have been waiting for. There's a lot of stupid people out there, but this virus is a great and extremely unfortunate unifying bind in the respect that no one wants to get it or suffer the consequences of it. The virus won't discriminate between sickening MAGAs or Bernie Bros. It's a problem that calls for unity that doesn't exist, much less the competence Trump doesn't possess.

It's unspoken, but the fear over this virus is driving people to desire an adult in the room. And to get an adult in the room? You need someone who can win the General, warts and all.

Biden is that guy. Sanders likely isn't. Biden lucked out on that, along with the coalescence of the moderate wing of the Democratic Party falling behind him, along with being saved by the African-American vote in South Carolina.

 

That is true that it would be a hurdle for Sanders. I’m curious, though, why Sanders is polling better versus Trump than Biden within the state. I can’t explain that.

 

Good assessment. I think there’s a risk running a moderate again versus Trump, and I worry about Biden’s record, absent mindedness and ability to campaign and garner support from young people — but you have some points.

 

Biden wins Texas. As big a stunner as Massachusetts.

 

The Mass/Maine/Minnesota flip from Sanders to Biden is nuts. Biden was down 10 in all three two days ago.

 

LOL at "absent-mindedness" being used as an issue against anyone running against Fatfuck.

 

Sanders won California due to a historic Latino turnout. A Politico reporter said tonight that Latinos are expected to be the largest non-white voting block this year and Sanders having that group should help with Biden having the majority of the AA vote.

 

Without early voting, Texas would have been 7+ to Biden as Pete and Amy had 6.2% of the vote.