The field narrows: The Post Super Tuesday presidential poll and discussion

Either you don't know many black people or you don't spend a lot of time in the South.

 

Jokes aside and assuming that people who supported Warren and Buttigieg, etc. etc. also worked hard and donated money against their better budget plans....I don't believe the ideas were rejected. I believe the old raging asshole spouting the ideas and the assholes that feel the need to be combative and aggressive about the old raging asshole spouting the ideas were rejected. People don't like the messenger.

I believe this the same way I want to believe that voters rejected Hillary more than they rejected the idea of a woman becoming president.

 

Trump will not debate. So Biden won't have to worry about that. He can use Bloomberg money to create an effective barrage of negative campaign ads in an air war. Heavy use of surrogates on the campaign trail. Biden will then narrate a series of Nixon/'68-like campaign commercials that are light on policy and heavy on "the time has come for the American people to turn to new leadership......"

 

Probably a little of both. There are a lot of people who think everyone should have healthcare and that people shouldn't have to die because they don't -- or go broke because they pursued a college education. I don't think those are "radical" ideals and I believe most agree.

But there are also a lot of people doing well in this country and they don't want much to change. They just don't want anyone to touch their retirement savings and social security and for the president to not be such an ass. I get that, too.

And yes, there are people who like progressive ideas -- like universal healthcare and inexpensive college -- but not the messenger. For me, whether I like the messenger or not, the agenda matters much more. I'm not doing nearly as well as my parents, who are retired, and I'm observant enough to see others doing far worse and it's not getting better. So, to me, the messenger isn't nearly as important as the policy and the changes that I believe are essential. That's where I am.

 

I saw one and only one Biden lawn sign in my town. I mean, Mayor Pete had more. But Biden carried the town just the same. Teddy White wrote it in Making of the President 1960: "Quiet people vote too."

 

I know black people, they weren't Biden supporters. They were with Warren, Kamala, and Bernie. Granted, west coast liberals are different than those in other parts of the country. And to be fair, I understand it. When you live in a red state, Sanders seems a lot more liberal than he does out this way.

 

I like some of Bernie's policy ideas. I don't like that when he is pressed on how he will pay for them the response is a lot of blather and hand waving. That's where Warren's similar policies resonated with me - she might not have been able to get her plans passed, but there were plans that you could read and parse. I also don't like risking the chance that he wins the Presidency but not the Senate and possibly loses the House as well. All three of them are old farts who could have a major medical issue at any time, so I'm pretty much discounting that. I am very much concerned with the quality of the VP candidates, though, because they are not the usual bench warmers this time.

 

I think too much may be made of Biden's alleged decline. Yeah, he seems a little slower and more tired than he did 8 years ago. I am too and I'm not yet 50. In all seriousness, however, there probably won't be debates. So you'll see him during a well-scripted convention speech, during some town halls (a good setting for him) and some commercials and other well-staged settings. If there is a debate, he has always done better in one-on-one settings (see his debates vs. Palin and Ryan) than in the crowded settings where everyone is fighting for airtime and getting cut off quickly and where it pays to be an aggressive asshole. This was also the case for him when he ran in the 2008 primaries. Plus, he's a likable guy who exudes decency and comfort in his own skin without seeming like a stiff (ie. Kerry or Gore). Any of the gaffe stuff is baked in anyway.

 

I'd be amazed if Trump's handlers allow him to debate. He's gotten far too fuzzy mentally. Put him out there without a prompter, fielding whatever questions are thrown out, or worse still responding off-the-cuff to something that Biden said, and lord only know what he'll say or how far afield he'd go.

 

This is interesting and I believe you're a not a normal case. The messenger always seems more important on the left side when it comes to elections. The right like to win and they don't care who is responsible for the win and if that person makes life hell for the people on the left, even better. Likability seems way more important on the left and a person that can work across the aisle seems more important, although at this point the latter shouldn't be as much of an issue.

 

That's a fair take. I agree and likely would have supported Warren if I felt she had the necessary support to beat Trump. I don't doubt that she would have been a better president than anyone still running. Because Biden will likely choose a much more conservative or moderate running mate than Warren, that does concern me that progressive ideas could be dead in the water for a while.