Muh Muh Muh My Corona (virus)

Final score: Caesar 0, God 0, (tie).

Nobody wins. But sometimes Ol' Julius pulls a point.

 

My big fear is that ours is as bad or worse but we just don't know it yet.

 

We don't know anything. We're a huge country with not enough information and a federal government, our information clearinghouse, who may well be suppressing much of it.

 

I know that. That's why I said it was my great fear instead of "It's coming. Put your affairs in order."

 

This is true, but some of that big country stuff is reason to start fearing. The cases have absolutely crushed Italy because of our size and at least a little bit of ramping up in terms of testing. One thing that's remained slower or similar in numbers is the death rate. Either we're going to be really lucky in that regard or it's going to start catching up in some ways to the case numbers. The last few days show we're starting to match Italy if looking at that two weeks behind thing. If anything we're going a bit faster. Italy had its first 200 death day exactly two weeks ago today. We're on our fourth-straight day of that. We might surpass 400 or get really close today. Italy went over 400 for the first time nine days ago, although by a lot it was closer to 500. But looking at a comparison with a much larger number of cases, especially ramping up in the last few days, I fear the death numbers are going to be nasty pretty soon.

 

They will be terrible. But we do have over five times the population of Italy.

 

I know, and that's the scary thing, right? Because Italy has been hammered. If the deaths start catching up to the cases people are going to be floored. Even if they heard the reasoning from experts. Many people really didn't think it was going to happen. Again, maybe we'll get lucky and that death rate will stay low.

 

Lower maybe, not low.

 

On the bright side, the situation in Italy is improving. The Seattle hot spot has quieted.

 

Italy had more than 900 die today. The most in a day, despite a flattening curve. Scary stuff.

 

Yes. But Italy's death rate is almost 10 percent whereas the U.S.'s right now is 1.6. So if it stays at 1.6 that's where maybe we luck out, even though it is still very awful.

 

I did not know that. Sorry for the misinformation. I took a day off from the news for my own mental well-being.

Italy's tourism in the winter months is going to be a big determinant in their study of this, I feel.