Muh Muh Muh My Corona (virus)

I've said it before here I'm not good at math, but I don't see it either. You can hope, though. It is possible it's happened/happening. The last three or four days have all been about the same, but then the four or five days before that were all the same before it shot up again. Like everything else, we need several days or more of numbers to be able to really say. But that thing changing in real time has led to a lot of different results too. There are probably going to be some higher figures in there.

 

Huh. Says you.

 

Ha!

That’s what I said.

Ha!

 

It just violates common sense. Hospitals don't admit patients who are already dead. Deaths should lag onset of symptoms by at least a week.

 

Take this with a grain of salt as I am a) not a statistician b) not a medical expert c) nor am I attempting to discredit your skepticism

But we can have a decreasing death rate while increasing hospitalizations assuming those in the most likely to suffer health complications are sheltering in place and taking all necessary steps to avoid exposure and those who are in need of hospitalizations are most likely to respond to treatments because of an absence of other complications.

The assumption goes to shit if we open too soon or the collective Southern foot drag spikes cases over the next two weeks. Again, this is mitigated as California appears to have seriously dodged a bullet, New York and New Jersey doing some serious work to stand up off the mat (albeit they are still getting some very unnecessary going kicks from the virus as they do so), Illinois getting aid from California and other places doing their part.

All that to say, the outfit that put out the prediction is not a Trump puppet but it needs to be taken with a grain of salt because there's a whole lot of dumbfuckery that can still come out of the SEC.

EDIT: The Washington Research Center that made this prediction says "peak resource use" will come tomorrow. Which leads to the logic leap that decreasing resource demand means more available to help existing and new patients which means critical patients won't die for lack of resources and more people won't become critical because resources were available sooner which means fewer daily deaths. All assuming we keep all this up for the next two months.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections

 

But the ratings.

 

I still think the peak is a few weeks off, also impacted by the differences in how this has been handled across the country, and I fear daily deaths are going to get worse at least short term, but it does look like we'll surpass 2,000 in a single day for the first time today. Still amazing that doesn't just floor everyone in the country, but here we are.

 

Opening it up next week would lead exactly to the definition of a clusterf*ck.

people compare Louisiana to Wash and CA.

And NO, cough syrup and chlorine will NOT cure you. But go ahead and try, you’ll just get shipped to Potter Island with the others.

 

It's in line with this sentiment out there, and I feel it's a big sentiment, that the peak is some how the end. The peak just means the "worst" it will get. It could stay at the peak for a while. Then we have to get back down. Far from over at the peak. And of course that's with everything we've been doing anyway. So go a head and head back out. We'll get a new peak.