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Mind you, GDP hasn't been an accurate barometer of PRODUCTIVE economic activity because of all the debt and the ridiculous deflator they use, which way overstates GDP.

But yes, take any measure of where the economy was a year ago. And with this shutdown, there is no doubt that it is on its way to a contraction of close to that amount.

GDP itself is C + I + G + (X - M).

Take those components:

C or private consumption. ... With people in their homes, not buying cars, not buying appliances, not going to entertainment, restaurants, etc., I wouldn't be surprised if it is down more than 50 percent year over year. Plus 22 million people are newly out of work. They are not spending the way they were.
I or Investment. ... Probably down between 75 percent and 100 percent in this environment. Too much uncertainty.
G or government expenditure. ... will be way up, keeping GDP from being down even more than that 40 percent. Even though it is becoming an bigger and bigger piece of our economy (an inefficient piece), it is still relatively small compared to private consumption and investment. You are talking about them injecting several trillion dollars to offset a decrease that is going to be in the tens of trillions of dollars.
X - M or exports minus imports. ... will be insignificant.

Add it all up, and yeah, I definitely think we are likely looking at a minus 40 percent type of number, the way it is generally being forecast.