Muh Muh Muh My Corona (virus)

Since the first klan rallies at the Michigan Capitol, Trumpandemic cases in Lansing's county and the six counties bordering it are up 91%, going from 1,026 to 1,962. The rest of the state has had a 60% increase. The sample sizes from the two groups are obviously different and there's no proof of correlation. Still interesting.

 

Where's @Azrael been lately?

 

Supposedly state cops will write citations for violations of social distancing guidelines during Thursday's MAGGAT fest at the capitol.

 

Fascism! Muh Rights!

 

I think several states aren't being exactly honest with their numbers, and it doesn't help anything. Florida and Texas look like two others for sure that just don't seem to quite what it is. I have many acquantances in Texas who keep saying things aren't that bad there. Maybe they aren't but with what's been reported who knows, but it leads people to think no matter what things are dandy. There are several stories about how even though Florida has been lax on restrictions, why haven't they been hit hard? Because they have been and it's not reported? It goes the other way too, if states are overreporting, which is certainly possible. The lack of standardization is hard for anyone who is trying to figure out if it's OK out there or not and what our next steps should be. When governments aren't clear or are hiding things, things aren't going to look up any time soon.

 

You've got the right idea, but it's even more confusing, though I don't think the state health officials are trying to be deceptive. A while back, the state health department announced that it would list cases by: 1) the date on which symptoms first appeared; 2) if that date wasn't known, the date of the test; and 3) if that date wasn't known either, the date the result was reported. The state website's graph has a shaded area in the last 14 days with a note saying that confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for, and when you hover over the lines in that period, it gives the 7-day averages and daily totals (like the 8 confirmed cases listed so far for today) as preliminary. It looks like they are retroactively adding the positive cases to the appropriate dates, but that still means that at any time the trend line looks like it's falling rapidly over the last 14 days. Our newspaper has explained this several times recently and doesn't seem to think the state is trying to hide anything. I suppose doing it that way gives a more accurate picture of the virus's evolution that isn't as distorted by the increase in testing, but it certainly can be misinterpreted.

Because results of the last 14 days aren't complete, the best that can be said is that it looks like the 7-day average of confirmed cases peaked on April 22 at 777 and fell gradually but steadily to 705 on April 28.

The state's website showed one other thing that I thought was interesting. The state's population is about 58% white and 32% African-American. (I expect the white population skews older, but the African-American population is probably more vulnerable for other reasons, so let's call that a wash.) Anyway, until mid-April but not afterwards, there were consistently more confirmed cases of African-Americans than whites each day. Since mid-April, there have been more whites than African-Americans, though there are a surprising number where the race is missing or unknown. My guess is that's because the hardest-hit areas early on were the mostly-African-American counties around Albany, while the rest of the state has been catching up since then.

 

And to be fair, I finally found a source that goes more to your point, but it pointed out more than 90 percent of the people dying had pre-existing conditions, not that they were elderly. So hardly and OVERWHELMING!!!!!!!!!1!!!1!!!!11!!!!! number of people dying are elderly in nursing homes, but rather most people have something else wrong with them.

 

Had a series of vax two years ago to prepare for volunteering with a peds unit. It included MMR and a lovely cocktail of sticks that made me want to bite the nurse by the time she was done.

 

I'm not a maga, and I am not going to rush the state capitol with my firearms. I am certainly willing to entertain the chicken and egg argument about staying at home.

Long beach is the 7th largest city by population in the largest state by population. As of last week, they had 38 deaths, and 31 associated with a long term care facility.
Long Beach records 1 more coronavirus-related death; total now 38 – Press Telegram

That means they had 7 deaths NOT associated with a long care facility. Deaths a week later are up to 41, and I am willing to bet one hundred internet dollars that the percentages are the same. The latest death, yesterday was a man in his 60s, underlying health conditions, and from a long care facility.
Officials report new death, 5 new cases linked to COVID-19 Monday • Long Beach Post News

We are now two months into this and a city with a population a bit under Wyoming's has 7-8 deaths NOT associated with a long care facility.

I'm not a city leader, but if I was, knowing what we know after two months, I would concentrate on the long care facilities, not locking down half a million people.

 

Have you considered that it might be a measure to protect a half-million people?

 

You know that people wind up in nursing homes because they have health problems, physical and mental, and can no longer live independently, right? They by definition have pre-existing conditions.