The Economy

Those other states don't have subways, trains and buses as the primary way of getting around and don't live so close together that (pre-pandemic) 6 inches of space once qualified as typical distancing.

The main reason they're as bad as they are now (which compared to NY isn't bad at all) is because of people leaving New York and seeding it all over the country.

 

"The Economy" is akin to the role played by the gods in the written Iliad.

I was told this was the greatest economy ever. It wasn't even the best in my lifetime.

 

The rates for Suffolk County on the eastern end of Long Island, where density rates are comparable to other large metropolitan areas, are similar the boroughs of New York. I realize there are probably more people that use mass transit than in other cities but I think this idea that other metro areas are safe because they don't have a subway system is misguided.

 

Question...we can easily determine the live entertainment, restaurant and travel industries are fucked for a while. What about real estate? Are we heading toward another housing bubble burst?

 

Probably. And a car payment bubble burst. Once the unemployment benefits cease.

 

Housing, car loans, student loans. Universities staring broke in the eye.

It could get *really* bad. Things are tough now, but they could be far worse. The stat that came out this week, "40% of households with an income of $40k or less now have at least one member unemployed" scares the hell out of me.

 

That is a great point.

 

I read the other day that real estate appraisers - who took heaps of criticism after the 2008 collapse - are expected to start dialing back home value estimates in July or August and that is going to prick the bubble.

 

I don't have the exact statistics handy. But the strength of the housing market - as measured by, among other metrics, loan-to-value ratio and percentage of "distressed" mortgages - was exponentially better in March 2020 than it was before "The Big Short" bubble. Lending regulations stiffened enough since then to prevent a lot of goofballs from getting mortgages in the first place. If you had strong enough documentation to get a mortgage in the first place, you probably have less of a problem qualifying for unemployment (+ $600 a week) now. Moreover, I believe there are moratoria on federally backed mortgages being foreclosed upon.

My guess is that the volume of transactions will decrease, and prices will hold relatively steady. Those who "have" to move - sickness in family forces relocation, family tragedy, etc. - might not be able to hold out for top dollar.

Where I live, the pivot has been that some short-term vacation rentals have "had" to convert to long-term rentals. And their neighbors have rejoiced.

 

I'm not an MBA, but most businesses live on the edge of a knife, this is a catastrophe especially for local small- and medium-sized businesses.

 

‪https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...-the-us-economy-could-hit-by-july-2020-05-13‬

 

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