2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

I'm in Katy, a suburb west of Houston, and the "good" news this morning was that the storm was shifting east ever so slightly. I'm still thinking we'll lose power, but I'm hopeful that we won't get the worst of it. We're in a community Facebook group for our neighborhood, and they said it didn't flood during Harvey, so losing power should be the biggest issue as long as one of our neighbors isn't stupid and leaves a grill untethered in their backyard.

However, it looks like Beaumont and most of Louisiana is going to get absolutely fucked, and unlike Marco, Laura seems to be getting stronger than anticipated. Its now expected to peak at a Cat4, after the weather people here initially thought it might only be a Cat2.

 

According to this morning's NHC discussion:

The hurricane has intensified a remarkable 40 kt during the past 24
hours, and there are no signs it will stop soon, with shear
remaining low-to-moderate over the deep warm waters of the central
Gulf of Mexico. Guidance is noticeably higher than before, so the
new peak intensity will be raised to 115 kt, and some models are
even a little higher. Increasing shear is expected to slightly
weaken the hurricane close to landfall, so the new forecast keeps
the previous 105-kt intensity near the coast. Laura will
weaken rapidly after landfall, but it will likely bring
hurricane-force winds well inland over western Louisiana and
eastern Texas.

 

One of the apps I use is already watching storm systems over Chad and Sudan and saying to watch out for them in a couple of weeks.
People bash on meteorologists all the time, but hurricane trackers are pretty dang good at what they do.

 

The models they use are amazing, and they will only get better in the future. They are probably looking way farther east than even Sudan to spot suspicious activity.

 

This doesn't sound good.

PORT ARTHUR, Texas — Hurricane Laura is expected to be an "extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane" with "unsurvivable storm surge" when it reaches the Gulf Coast on Wednesday night and early Thursday, the hurricane center said in its 10 a.m. CDT update.
Laura, which grew to a Category 3 storm early Wednesday, is forecast to bring "potentially catastrophic" storm surge, fierce winds and flash flooding to eastern Texas and Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said.

 

Not to say that anywhere is a great place for a Cat 4 hurricane, but if the thing comes in between Lake Charles and Baton Rouge, there are no major beachfront towns in its path. That's a whole lot of national wildlife refuge area to tear up before it reaches civilization. If you're on the west side of the storm, you're probably better off than the east.

 

Here's the 10 a.m. update:

Laura has become a very powerful hurricane this morning. The
satellite presentation has continued to improve with the eye
becoming better defined, and cloud tops colder than -70C in the
surrounding ring of deep convection. Both NOAA and Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft have provided valuable data this morning.
The NOAA P-3 aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 125 kt at
8000 ft, and a peak SFMR wind of 104 kt, while the Air Force crew
has observed peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 121 kt and peak SFMR
winds of 104 kt. The lastest minimum pressure estimated from
aircraft data is 956 mb, indicating a pressure drop of 27 mb over
the past 12 hours. Based on the aircraft data, the initial wind
speed was increased to 100 kt on the 1200 UTC intermediate advisory,
and is now set at 110 kt based on the latest flight-level and SFMR
winds.

For comparison, 125 knots is 144 mph. 100 knots is about 115 mph. The pressure is what I always watch. The report also said the eye wall was possibly beginning a new replacement cycle, which would probably cause a leveling in intensity.

 

They're predicting that between the tide and the storm surge twenty feet of water will be rolling in. Beaumont/Port Arthur will catch it. I'd expect I-10 to be under water as well. This storm is nothing to fool with.

Hurricane Laura to hit Louisiana, Texas coast as Category 4 storm

 

Monster

 

I've saved us.

 

Right up the Sabine River.

 

Pretty much a carbon copy of Rita. Except the models are orders of magnitude better in 15 years, as I alluded to earlier.