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President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Moderator1, Nov 12, 2016.

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  1. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

    I love Beau. He cuts through the bullshit.
     
    Neutral Corner, Oct 6, 2020
    #193489
    OscarMadison and ChrisLong like this.
  2. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    The only poll that matters is the one when people cast their ballots. But this is not 2016 and things have changed a lot.

    I think there is going to be record voter turnout for this election (a lot of mail in ballots, which are pouring in right now supposedly), the kind not seen in a century. And I think the vote is not going to be close. On the popular vote, Biden is going to win by an eye popping total. On the electoral vote, it may look slightly closer, because a couple of hillbilly states are going to prevent it from looking like Jimmy Carter's loss to Reagan as an incumbent. But it won't be much better. It will likely be somewhere between 75 and 150 electoral votes for Trump.

    This is with nobody being excited about Joe Biden. Trump is that bad to most people.
     
    The Big Ragu, Oct 6, 2020
    #193490
    garrow, TowelWaver, Driftwood and 2 others like this.
  3. 3_Octave_Fart

    3_Octave_Fart Well-Known Member

    I am cynical but not nearly cynical enough to think people would conspire to monkey around with results across 14 or 15 different polls.

    What would be the point?
     
    3_Octave_Fart, Oct 6, 2020
    #193491
  4. hondo

    hondo Well-Known Member

    This is where the Democrats miss the boat about half the time. They nominate too many safe choices (Humphrey, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, Hillary, Biden) and too often forget what actually won: the fresh faces with the populist, centrist message like BClinton, Obama and Carter. They're still spooked by McGovern, 48 years later.
     
    hondo, Oct 6, 2020
    #193492
    gingerbread likes this.
  5. hondo

    hondo Well-Known Member

    I'll be lazy and assume you've seen them all. What's the range of Biden's lead in all of the polls?
     
    hondo, Oct 6, 2020
    #193493
  6. Starman

    Starman Well-Known Member

    Fatfuck lost the popular vote by three million votes in 2016.

    The entire concept of voting for Fatfuck is based on "fuck yur feelings, nobody tells me whut ta do." Owning the libz. There is no such thing as the "shy" fatfuck voter.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2020
    Starman, Oct 6, 2020
    #193494
    TigerVols and Smallpotatoes like this.
  7. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    Inky_Wretch, Oct 6, 2020
    #193495
  8. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member

    Pwn the libs.
     
    poindexter, Oct 6, 2020
    #193496
  9. Regan MacNeil

    Regan MacNeil Well-Known Member

    Biden by 8.8.
     
    Regan MacNeil, Oct 6, 2020
    #193497
  10. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

    Neutral Corner, Oct 6, 2020
    #193498
  11. sgreenwell

    sgreenwell Well-Known Member

    I think this has somehow solidified into conventional wisdom, but - The polls *weren't* that far off in 2016. Like, per 538's model, Clinton held a 3.9 percent lead in the national popular vote, and she won the popular vote by 2.1 percent, which was within the margin of error. That model gave Trump a 1-in-5 chance of winning the election. Yeah, if you're forcing me to bet, I'm taking the 80 percent side, but if you translated it to baseball, you wouldn't say that a .200 hitter has zero chance of getting a hit.
     
    sgreenwell, Oct 6, 2020
    #193499
    Donny in his element likes this.
  12. Regan MacNeil

    Regan MacNeil Well-Known Member

    That’s the average. The range has been anywhere from Biden +3 to +17.
     
    Regan MacNeil, Oct 6, 2020
    #193500
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