President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Hello, Bear of Very Little Brain here.

I uh, 'bout Trump n' Biden n' their kids? Didn't Donny give his kids staff positions and oodles of clearance? Haven't the taxpayers paid out the snoot for the Trump kids to hunt, ski, and generally schlep around the country and beyond? I don't think Biden's kid had that handed to him. As Oma and Opa used ta say at the Seder, "Never again, Buckaroos!"

I'll hang up and listen.

 

If there's ever a vaccine for daily constipation, make sure you get the first three.

 

Trump's odds of winning have improved to around 40 percent. That's after being as low as 32-33 percent just after he announced he tested positive for COVID-19. That's not an insignificant move in just a short time. Biden still is listed as having about a 61 percent chance of winning but that's down from almost 68 percent less than 2 weeks ago.

Now, are bettors placing more wagers on Trump because he 1. Beat COVID; 2. Because of the Hunter Biden news; 3. Because there is better value when he had the longer odds.

It could be all 3.

 

And I should have been drafted by the Nordiques.
Somehow it didn't happen.

If I could see one black swan scenario in which Trump wins, I will indulge chicken littles of the left who seem to have forgotten they've won more elections than they've lost since 11/9/16.

I realize we've got a lot of 'new fans' this post-season but deep breath, look at the math, look at the map.

 

I can accept the fact that Hunter Biden probably got a few jobs because he was a rich, powerful man's son, but what if this is just a case of a drug addict trying to peddle his father's influence, when really it wasn't his to peddle? I can believe that Hunter, strung out on crack, tried to get money from people in China or the Ukraine, or was targeted by people in groups that wanted to buy Joe Biden. That doesn't mean Joe was involved and in fact makes it highly likely that he wasn't.

 

I put more importance in betting odds than polls because those people are actually putting their money on the line. I don't think Trump will win but it might not be the easy layup people are expecting.

 

Betting markets are TERRIBLE predictors of elections. For one thing, the volume of trades is too thin to really represent mass opinion. For another, they are wholly dominated by white guys, mostly younger guys, with serious disposable income. Their ability to predict how many unmarried women under 35 will vote in North Carolina or how many retired manufacturing workers will vote in southwestern Pennsylvania is nil.

 

Yes. All of that is true. I believe it's been covered quite well by the media, too, hasn't it?

 

I think a major factor is people have convinced themselves that the very unlikely things that happened in 2016 will happen again (some chicken littles on the Dem side, but a LOT of people deluding themselves on the right). This time around there's no significant third-party vote siphoning and people haven't been conditioned for 25 years to absolutely hate Joe Biden. Plus, Trump has a (very bad) track record now rather than being "not the usual."

 

You're right on this and most money comes from European countries. I posted mainly thinking that I put more stock in someone who actually backs up their opinion with money.

I'd love to see Biden get the 330 or more Electoral College votes some polls indicate. I cannot see Trump winning Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin even if he takes Ohio and Pennsylvania.

 

I see Pennsylvania going to Biden and Michigan going to Trump.

 

Straight cuckoo ...