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President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Moderator1, Nov 12, 2016.

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  1. Regan MacNeil

    Regan MacNeil Well-Known Member

    The math that fundamentally disagrees with your assessment that PA is a tossup at best.
     
    Regan MacNeil, Oct 21, 2020
    #196969
  2. BitterYoungMatador2

    BitterYoungMatador2 Well-Known Member

    Anyone confident in anything right now based on polls is either a fool or was the passed out in 2016 and 2012.
     
    BitterYoungMatador2, Oct 21, 2020
    #196970
    HanSenSE, wicked and Jerry-atric like this.
  3. champ_kind

    champ_kind Well-Known Member

    Your post says Biden has a 90% chance of winning if he wins PA and a 74% of winning if he loses PA. That seems to not be what you meant, but it is what your post said.
     
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2020
    champ_kind, Oct 21, 2020
    #196971
  4. garrow

    garrow Well-Known Member

    garrow, Oct 21, 2020
    #196972
    Neutral Corner likes this.
  5. DanielSimpsonDay

    DanielSimpsonDay Well-Known Member

    to be fair i would have said rape twice and what's with the dot at the end of the last word must be a finance thing
     
    DanielSimpsonDay, Oct 21, 2020
    #196973
    gingerbread, Donny in his element, TigerVols and 2 others like this.
  6. DanOregon

    DanOregon Well-Known Member

    I do buy the notion that there are Trump supporters who won't admit to a pollster they will vote for him, making it closer than reported. I also wonder if the cross-tabs are overinflating the electorate on Trump's behalf. Higher turnout is bad for Trump, a less white electorate (as this one will be) is bad for Trump, high "wrong/right track" number is bad for Trump. He's down among independents, he's down among women.
     
    DanOregon, Oct 21, 2020
    #196974
  7. daemon

    daemon Well-Known Member

    And yet every expert and politico agrees that if he wins Pennsylvania he likely wins the Presidency. There seems to be some space between your portrayal of the situation and theirs
     
    daemon, Oct 21, 2020
    #196975
  8. Regan MacNeil

    Regan MacNeil Well-Known Member

    He’s hemorrhaging senior support. Democrats remind me of Cubs fans. Always waiting for the other shoe to drop.
     
    Regan MacNeil, Oct 21, 2020
    #196976
    OscarMadison likes this.
  9. wicked

    wicked Well-Known Member

    I just gave $50 to ActBlue. I've crossed over to the dark side.
     
    wicked, Oct 21, 2020
    #196977
    TowelWaver likes this.
  10. Regan MacNeil

    Regan MacNeil Well-Known Member

    I guess we’ll see, won’t we? You wanna live your life afraid of your own shadow, that’s your business.
     
    Regan MacNeil, Oct 21, 2020
    #196978
  11. Jerry-atric

    Jerry-atric Well-Known Member

    The next wave of Pennsylvania polling will “tell the tale.” The most recent polls were conducted by pollsters that have been favorable to “Drumpf” throughout the campaign. This makes Pennsylvania look like a “toss-up” currently, when it may not be.

    Keep an eye on Pennsylvania, my friends!
     
    Jerry-atric, Oct 21, 2020
    #196979
  12. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    It's not blind adherence to polls.

    In 2016, few people were enthusiastic about either of the candidates. They were both polarizing, and to the extent that Hilary Clinton represented the status quo, there was enough disaffection to drive some misguided people to toward Trump. It was the, "Maybe we should try something different" vote.

    2020 is completed different. Joe Biden doesn't excite anyone, but there isn't a ton of polarized enmity toward him either (I am not talking about the fringe who will polarize anyone 'the other side' puts upon.

    This time, Trump is running on a record of endless bullshit, the coronavirus devastating people's lives while he has been a raging asshole, and the disaffected vote he got last time is going to go against him.

    THEN. ... factor in the polls showing this is a done deal, and you have to conclude that it is overwhelmingly likely that we are going to have a new president in January.
     
    The Big Ragu, Oct 21, 2020
    #196980
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