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President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Moderator1, Nov 12, 2016.

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  1. Della9250

    Della9250 Well-Known Member


     
    Della9250, Oct 22, 2020
    #197281
  2. Spartan Squad

    Spartan Squad Well-Known Member

    The problem with these stories is this assumes turn out on election day will be the same. Covid has made these numbers apples to oranges. This only matters if we actually see a rise in turnout and then we can point to the surge in early vote. Until then all we know is 800,000 people voted so far.
     
    Spartan Squad, Oct 22, 2020
    #197282
    tapintoamerica likes this.
  3. Della9250

    Della9250 Well-Known Member

    Harris County in 2016 had 1,251,431 votes cast between Trump and Clinton.

    They are 70 percent of the way there 10 days to go in early voting, to say nothing of what will happen on Election day
     
    Della9250, Oct 22, 2020
    #197283
  4. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

     
    Neutral Corner, Oct 22, 2020
    #197284
  5. Azrael

    Azrael Well-Known Member

    Harold Stassen - who ran and lost 9 times - has to be the worst candidate for president.
     
    Azrael, Oct 22, 2020
    #197285
  6. Azrael

    Azrael Well-Known Member

    Donald Trump is merely the worst person to run for, much less win, the office.
     
    Azrael, Oct 22, 2020
    #197286
    OscarMadison, lakefront and maumann like this.
  7. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    The ghost of Richard Nixon approves of that post.
     
    The Big Ragu, Oct 22, 2020
    #197287
    OscarMadison likes this.
  8. Jerry-atric

    Jerry-atric Well-Known Member

    That is a very good point.
     
    Jerry-atric, Oct 22, 2020
    #197288
  9. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    Early and mail voting would have increased this year no matter what because convenient things are popular ones. Obviously the pandemic accelerated this trend dramatically. But as I have said before, all the means pollsters use to measure public interest in an election are off the charts, and turnout for just about every election since 2016 has been up. I believe at a minimum 150 million votes will be cast by the time the last polls close in Hawaii Nov. 3.
     
    Michael_ Gee, Oct 22, 2020
    #197289
    maumann likes this.
  10. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Turnout is going to be higher than it has been in a century.

    People who don't typically vote don't suddenly vote when they are happy with where the country is.

    Also, I can't find it in my inbox, but I had a research note from JP Morgan that said the number of undecided voters is nil. Just a historically low number. In 2016 at this point the number of undecided voters was way higher than had been typical.

    What I take from that is that in 2016 people hated both candidates and couldn't really choose between what they saw as two odious choices. After the shitshow of the last four years, nobody is unengaged this time around. Either you are one of the fringe assholes who still supports the jerkoff, or you are one of the 55 to 65 percent of people who are horrified and are champing at the bit to vote against him.
     
    The Big Ragu, Oct 22, 2020
    #197290
    OscarMadison, maumann and Driftwood like this.
  11. garrow

    garrow Well-Known Member

    [​IMG]

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    garrow, Oct 22, 2020
    #197291
    OscarMadison, bigpern23, Jake from State Farm and 4 others like this.
  12. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    Sounds about right.

    Number of eligible voters increases by an average of 5-8% every four years.

    150 million votes would be an increase of just over 8% from 2016.

    There was a 16% increase in votes cast in 2004 from 2000, twice the typical increase per presidential election cycle.

    The incumbent won.

    Turnout for JFK-Nixon was 62.8%. You would have to see about 165 million votes cast this November to equal that, assuming the number of eligible voters increases by 5% from 2016. Ain't happening.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2020
    BTExpress, Oct 22, 2020
    #197292
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