President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

It was like Somebody Flipped A Switch.

 

There's always a chance, but I don't see it. The people know who he is by now, and most don't approve.

 

I apologize profusely for all the jokes I made about K-Pop five years ago.

The fans have been amazing.

 

there’s always a chance the polls are wrong, and that could be in anyone’s favor.

There were two main issues with the polls last time. Outside of the last three weeks, there were a lot of undecideds, and they broke heavily toward Trump. Maybe they were swayed by him, maybe they were embarrassed to say they were voting for him all along, maybe Comey reminded them that Clinton felt shady, who knows? (Ironically, Nate Silver was one of the few people to point it out *and* how a small boost in the rust belt could give Trump a win, and he was accused of trying to drum up clicks by creating doubt where there wasn’t any).

The polls in the last couple weeks did pick up that shift, but a lot of people had spent so long assuming Clinton would win that it didn’t seem important that she was winning by less, even though it brought her inside the “could lose a close one” range.

The other problem was the likely voter screens. They use demographics and voting history to guess who will actually show up and vote. A lot of uneducated rural whites with sporadic voting histories showed up for Trump, while a lot of suburban Republicans who had been reliable voters did not. This balanced out in the overall total, but gave Trump a big boost in the key rust belt states and cost him votes in states that didn’t matter much.


Could that happen again? Sure. Or the polls could underestimate the Democrats like they did in 2018. Or they could be dead on like they were in 2012.

 

Clinton never touched 50% in the RCP polling average in the last six months of the campaign.

Biden has been above it for the entirety of October.

 

As my wife and I were watching the second half of the show, she asked me what I thought of Stahl's questions and I said, "Not much."

I would have wanted her to ask Trump to assess the job he's done, and after he blathered on about what a great president he's been, follow up with, "Really? Let's look back on the promises you made four years ago. Build the wall. Didn't happen. Mexico will pay for it. Didn't happen. Drain the swamp. Didn't happen. You want to claim 11 million jobs added recently, but those are people who were laid off a month earlier. During your watch the U.S. had the highest unemployment rate since the 1930s. Still think you deserve an A+?"

 

There was a Trump ad run during the broadcast where they clipped Biden saying, "I'm going to raise taxes (on corporations or those making more than $400k or something)." to just 'I'm going to raise taxes."
While selective editing is as old as the medium itself, the job they did was strictly amateur hour. Even Trump voters should have scratched their heads and said, "Uhhhh, that was cut mid sentence."

 

A new Voting Rights act must be passed as a first order of business. Elections have always been contentious. We've had states disenfranchise citizens and gerrymander the heck out of districts. We've had people fraudulently vote.
Never has there been the all out assault on the process itself from all corners as we've seen in 2020.
Pass the law, tie any and all kind of federal funding to it, and tell SCOTUS straight up to fuck off if they try to strike it down.

 

Well, to get any of that done, they gotta nuke the filibuster on day one after taking office on Jan. 4 --- assuming they get 51 votes.

 

Trump Is Botching His Election-Year Lies