President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

The mistake is thinking he HAS to pull the inside straight. He doesn't.

Assuming his inside straight was MI/WI/PA/FL/OH, He could lose WI/MI, or WI/PA, or WI/OH, or MI/OH and have 272-280 EVs.

2016's inside straight didn't give him the election; it just put his EV total at a ridiculous number, given his pathetic popular vote numbers.

 

You’re assuming he only loses WI and MI, which is just not supported by any evidence. He’s going to lose AZ. And he’s going to lose the Omaha CD. That puts Biden at 270 no matter what happens.

 

Because I was EXCITED

 

Anonymous wasn’t already in the house with him?

 

They couldn't make any of Rudy's bullshit accusations stick, so now the story is that the liberal media (including that bastion of East Coast Liberalism, the Wall Street Journal) suppressed the story... and they're still trying to make something out of a pile of BS.

MAGA scrambles to repair the Hunter Biden narrative

 

I have 361 as a magic number.

Right now Trump is that sorry 7-8 team in Week 17 that needs five teams to lose and three other games to end in ties.

Along with point differentials, net points in conference games and all of that other stuff to come into play.

In other words: Use your head - not Ghana happen.

 

Terrorists.

 

Good point, but the latest polling for each state from 2020 Election Forecast is:

MI - Biden 53.5% / Trump 45.4%
WI - Biden 53.7% / Trump 45.4%
PA - Biden 52.2% / Trump 47.1%
FL - Biden 50.4% / Trump 48.9%
OH - Trump 50.2% / Biden 48.8%

And there are others that are also statistically-tied/slight lean to Biden that went for Trump in 2016; he'd have to win most or all of these again:

GA - Tied 49.6%
IA - Biden 49.4% / Trump 49.3%
ME2 - Biden 49.5% / Trump 48.8%
NC - Biden 50.5% / Trump 48.8%
AZ - Biden 50.6% / Trump 48.2%
NE2 - Biden 51.4% / Trump 47.2%

Part of the problem with the modeling of 2016 was they didn't assume proper correlations between the states (as @RickStain has noted) but I would have to assume 2020's models have fixed that, and right now the 538 model probability is 88% Biden win, 11% Trump win (1% tied and thrown to the House). Last time around Hillary was leading but that lead was plummeting...right now Biden's seems pretty steady, at least from all that I've seen. That's why it still feels like an "inside straight" situation to me to get to that 11% outcome.

 

Ready for the money shot. My God he looks absolutely horrible.

 

when just asking questions is outlawed only outlaws will just ask questions