President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

My fellow Americans...really are stupid.

edit: I see now that @Starman and I think alike. I’ll go scrub my brain now.

 

You can't compare stats that use dates ("On the same date in 2016 . . . ") for that reason.

And, frankly, you can't compare it because you don't know how many people will vote on Election Day. According to the poll of sj.com members, 81% of Biden voters have already voted. How does THAT number compare to 2016?

Face it. Because of a variety of things (COVID, fear of suppression, messaging, whatever), voting early is the "thing" now. If you're expecting the same number of voters to show up on Election Day that showed up in 2016 AND this surge of early voters, you're probably going to be disappointed.

I expect poll workers by and large will be pretty bored on Election Day.

My biggest gripe is that in too many places early voting doesn't help move along the damn COUNTING . . . and could actually push it back in places overwhelmed with mail-in ballots that won't touch them until the last minute.

 

"busses"

like any lovefest

 

¿Es este ardor una llama eterna?​

 

One thing we do know. In 2016 a little over 40 million people voted early out of 137 million votes cast. As of this morning about 94 million early votes have been recorded (some still in mail, some yet to be put in drop boxes today). As Michael McDonald, the professor at Florida who tracks this stuff said, obviously the same percentage of voters won't show up on Election Day because that would equal a total larger than the eligible electorate, let alone registered voters. He predicted a turnout of around 160 million. It's gonna be at least 150 million, I think.

 

"Donald Trump has gone from throwing people under the bus to not providing buses for his rallygoers."

 

Maybe they'll die.

 

Sorry but if have just 10 percent to go before eclipsing 2016 totals (Texas already has) and there are still ballots in the mail, I think we can start making conclusions. Even if poll workers are bored, North Carolina only needs 235,000 people to vote on election day and that doesn't count what arrives today, tomorrow and three days after the election.

I trust numbers are going to blow away 2016 because

1. Votes are still coming in
2. Republicans are probably going to show up to polls
3. The Black vote might be more in person (it is documented the Black vote isn't keeping place with current numbers
4. Not all states make it easy to get a mail in ballot meaning you have to show up somewhere early or show up election day
5. Using an SJ poll as an indicator of how voting will go? I'll let Dr Quant explain why you can't use that as proof of anything.

That all said, it is my fear that they only ones who will vote have largely voted already. If I'm wrong and we don't see anything other than a nominal increase in voting, I'll wear it. There's an estimated 2 precent more people of voting age in the US. If we don't see much more than a 2 precent increase, I'll own it. But I don't think I will. Texas, Texas is already over is 2016 total. Not early votes, total votes. My prediction is we eclipse 2008 turnout percentages which will blow away 2016 numbers.

 

Making it a point to show the Confederate flag.

 

Your loyal correspondent once worked for legendary British ex-pat tabloid editor Wendy Henry*, who frequently wrote headlines with the phrase "$millions" as in "Jacko Spends $millions On New Nose." One day in a news meeting I asked her, "how much money is a smillion dollars?" She didn't think my joke was funny, but I noticed "$millions" stopped appearing in our American publications.


*Wendy was Rupert's first female editor, but she was sent packing to America after getting sacked by the Sunday People for running a pix of 6-year-old Prince William peeing beside a tree, with the hed: Wee Willie.

 

GO GO GO GO GO!!!!