President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Prediction: Biden wins. It is obvious on election night as he should clear 290 in the Electoral College. There's potential for a 400 EC landslide though.
Trump doesn't concede Tuesday night. He doesn't concede later this week and never does.
Biden wins the popular vote in something that will look amazing. No president has ever cracked 70 million votes, and he'll go right past that and when all the counting is done be in the 80 to 90 million range. Total vote total will crush 150 million and be more like 160 million
There's significant riots in major metros along with problems not everywhere but it will seem that way as the week progresses. If Trump goes full meltdown, it could get bad and given the moral cowardice of key Republicans, no one in the GOP will tell him to take it down a notch or two. Seriously, I never thought much of W. but he at least has the standing in the GOP to make a difference and his silence is deafening.

Dems win the Senate. It will be 50-48 when the counting is done with both Georgia races headed to a run-off. The Dems will win at least one of those, making it 51-49.
Senate wins for Dems: Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. Then Rev, Raphael Warnock will win his January run-off in Georgia.
Keep an eye on Alaska as it is going to get weird there. Gideon wins in Maine because of ranked choice voting, which will be something.
Doug Jones makes Alabama interesting but Tuberville will be the next senator from there but probably not for long. Since he's dumb as a damn rock, he'll get caught up in some scandal and Gov. Kay Ivey will appoint Jeff Sessions to the seat.

Dems keep the House: Oklahoma and Utah will lose their Democratic congressman, becoming the two largest states with no elected Democrats, but Arkansas Dems pick up a seat in the second congressional district.

 

Sums it up. It's not about winning, it's about the other side losing.

 

Ranked choice voting is kn the ballot in Massachusetts. Is it a good idea?

 

I think the demographic where the polls are way off is in the share of vote that will come from 18-29.

While anything is possible, this is why I think the more likely surprise is Biden pushing toward 375 or 400 than Trump pulling a royal flush.

 

While you're working on dumping Trump, make sure that Kelly Loeffler joins him. After all, she votes with him 100 percent of the time - just ask her - so she can join him on this one, too.

 

Why It Might Be Impossible To Overturn A Presidential Pardon

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R46179.pdf

We might as well read up on this since we know Trump won't.

 

I think 400 EVs is going to be a real stretch for Biden because that will require he sweeps Florida, Georgia, Ohio and Texas. I think half of those are possible but all four is unlikely. And even though I got into it with BTE about turnout, I'm still nervous AF that things are going to get weird. I'm nervous AF that even with insane voter turn out (by percentage not just volume), Trump pulls off a miracle. I don't know.

I want to believe the numbers, but the minute I start to get hope, I see polls that are tightening up and then there is the PTSD from 2016 where all the polls seemed to favor Clinton only to have it get jacked up.

 

RE pardons: If someone is pardoned, don't they lose Fifth Amendment protection, since they can no longer incriminate themselves, and be compelled to testify to Congress?

 

Should have edited in BHO nailing the jump shot, but otherwise, great.

 

Just like when Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, these aren't all independent.

If he wins Florida, he probably wins Georgia, and vice-versa. And both would probably mean good things for his chances in Texas.

 

And then the question becomes Ohio. I don't think that is flipping blue this time around.