President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

I saw the polls, and liked what I saw... but I trusted none of it. The post mortem on this election's polls should be interesting.

 

Looking at the numbers we have from Minnesota, Trump is getting his butt kicked in Hennepin Co. (Minneapolis) by 320,000 votes. Exactly nothing from Ramsey County (St. Paul) has been released, and Trump has declined by a significant margin in the outer ring suburbs. I don't really know if the rural Minnesota vote is or isn't enough to overcome that, but it seems fairly consistent with the conventional wisdom here, which was 5-10 points for Biden.

 

As Mae West never said, fasten your seatbelt, it's going to be a bumpy ride.


EDIT: H/T to Elliotte.

 

D_B said it as well, two minutes ago.

 

I'm not reading to concede defeat on All of Polldom just yet. If the upper Midwest pulls a 2016, then yes, public polling is dead forever. But if it doesn't, then the miss wasn't that bad.

 

Fair enough all the way around, but:

I realize what 538 does, but I do think their ass is on the line here a little bit. Silver rose to prominence because he got them right... ALL of them right. They can say "look, it's just odds. 1/3 of the time, Trump wins in '16. 1/10 of the time he wins in 2020." But if it comes up Trump both times, do you really take their averages seriously next time?

I realize we're actually talking about polling here, but if the polling is no longer accurate, what good does it do to analize it?

If a field goal kicker tells you, "Ok, I have a 2/3 shot of making that 50 yarder, and a 90% shot of making the 25 yarder." He shanks both. Are you saying "Well, shit, he did tell us there was a chance he'd miss. Guess it's just bad luck." Or are you saying "Maybe we need to reevalute our field goal kicking."

 

Cornyn's an asshole. Cruz is a bloated, inflamed, hairy, hemorrhoidal asshole with dingleberrys.