President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

FATUS is rooting for election violence to take hold and spread throughout the country. Hoping for ballots to be compromised or destroyed. GOP says nothing. Law enforcement complicit.

Arm yourselves.

 

Nate's right.

The polls themselves have a multitude of questions to answer, but 538's model - which accounted for a potential polling error - is going to get 49 of 50 states. The one miss will be Florida and it's clear there are some very unexpected demographic shifts with the Latino vote there.

The problem is his argument is nuanced, and it's because people don't understand polls and they certainly don't understand that 538 is not a pollster itself.

 

Nate Silver did fine. What we as a public may want to do is stop acting like what Nate Silver is doing is so useful or profound that it’s worthy of such mean criticism.

The problem is the polling itself. That needs to get better. Silver merely works the data in front of him.

 

This is what I'm beginning to think. The longer this takes the more suspicious -- not careful -- it actually seems. I'm not sure why this wasn't all done yesterday night, myself, and any stoppage of counting does not sit well, and it shouldn't, no matter what your vote or what you wish to have happen.

For the record, I did not vote for Trump, and don't consider myself a wack-a-doodle, but I still think this whole election has been a disgusting process and can't help questioning it.

 

Why wasn’t this done last night?


That’s why.

 

These are Joe Arpaio’s former underlings. I half expect them to throw the doors open and let the Branch COVIDians run riot.

 

Like I said...the whole thing stinks, and actually is becoming suspicious. But, I know I've got election fatigue at this point, too. What I say or think doesn't matter. I'm just saying and thinking it. And I'm sure I'm not the only one.

 

According to CNN, Arizona got a new batch of votes in Maricopa County. Biden's lead shrunk by about 10,000 votes. His lead is still almost 70,000.

It's not over there, not by a long shot. According to the network's field reporter, this is the last bunch of votes and numbers to be disclosed to the media tonight/early this morning.

 

We have an uneducated electorate. The criticism won't go away until the electorate - and many members of the political media - understand how polls work and how pollsters are different from analysts like Nate Silver and Nate Cohn.

 

Maybe if the President of the United States hadn't crippled the postal service and Republican state legislatures hadn't fought state election commissions on counting ballots early, we'd be further along.

 

Counts have stopped for the night.

Prediction: The race will be called by tomorrow evening, likely sometime after Nevada announces counts around noon eastern.

By the time the final ballots are counted, Biden will win Pennsylvania by 150,000 (Trump won by 44,000 in 2016). Biden will win Georgia by about 15-20,000 and also win Nevada and Arizona, though since there is some ambiguity about the number of ballots left, not sure by how much.

 

I completely disagree.

1) We're in the middle of a pandemic. Without question, that motivated a lot of people into voting by mail or absentee to avoid lines on Election Day, big crowds and any other last-minute issue (weather, family emergency, work ramping up). It's becoming obvious that most states never planned to process this many votes that didn't occur on Election Day. Worse, states that processed votes from Election Day turnout, THEN went back to process the early ballots look overwhelmed, understaffed or a toxic combination of both.

2) USPS. DeJoy went about hamstringing the Postal Service before unloading his box of office stuff in his new digs. After being ordered to restore what he had dismantled and destroyed, he didn't completely restore it. After the judge ordered that ballots in USPS possession in their buildings be swept up and delivered to their proper destinations, the USPS didn't comply. Do you think, for a moment, that this was NOT intentional by Trump, his underlings and DeJoy?

3) Trump. His behavior, actions - or lack thereof regarding the pandemic among other issues - and other missteps probably motivated a lot more people into voting than usual. Turnout has been strong. That means processing more votes, no matter if they're same-day, mail-in or submitted to your Board of Elections well before Nov. 3. Yes, Biden and the Dems wanted people to turn out, but this turnout is more the result of Trump's last four years than anything else.

4) You can blame the Republicans for not allowing some states who had thousands, hundreds of thousands or millions of votes from starting the process until Election Day. This is an unforced error. Do deskers in newsrooms wait until Saturday evening and night to produce Sunday's multiple-section publication? No. We get going on Wednesday or Thursday and work in advance in hopes of making Saturday less of a circus than it usually is when you're solo on the desk since there's no safety net should news break or the top editor decide to tear up 1A or the SE think a new front is in order at the last possible moment. Back on topic ... this is on the Republicans. Any GOP who gripes about this is a fool.

5) Planning? You think this government is going to plan well? Look at how the pandemic has been mishandled, and notice that the Trump administration still has no plan. Look at how unemployment offices have been overwhelmed because of the numbers applying for help. Look at our new plan when the GOP wipes out Obamacare ... or not, because there isn't one. Do you think, for a moment, that anyone was adjusting plans for millions more ballots than normal?