President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Ossoff only down 456 votes statewide now.

 

Update: Ossoff is about 450 behind.

 

They go by remaining expected votes at the precinct level, based on turnout in similar counties and reports from early voting and such. So they know that if a precinct has 100,000 registered voters and was expecting 50% turnout, then it should have 50,000 votes. If it historically votes 60-40 for Democratic candidates, and has only reported 30,000 votes and still has counting to do, they expect 20,000 votes to be reported at a margin of +4000 for the Democratic candidate.

It's obviously not 100% accurate, which is why they talk in probabilities and ranges. But historically, it does a pretty good job of guessing who is going to win.

 

I am going to embrace my fucking hangover tomorrow.

It's happening.

 

If you go to the Needle page, they actually have a map that shows where the remaining votes are believed to be and how they are expected to go:

Election Needles: Georgia Senate Runoffs

 

IT’S ALL HAPPENING!

 

I would love to get a master's class from Cohen to go through how they work on election night, how they crunch numbers and the statistical analysis they go through to say they have a lean.

I remember a city council race in 2010 or 12 looked like one person won after results were posted at 3 am. Then after a week, they flipped. Had to eat my words. Would love to see what Cohen does. Not that I need it anymore but I'm curious.

 

I never believed this could happen. Never believed it.

It's happening.