Are we allowed to talk about Bitcoin?

I posted this on the Reddit thread. ...

Tesla filed a 10K saying that the company has bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin, sending the price of bitcoin to a new high.

At the same time, Elon Musk had put the bitcoin symbol a while ago on his twitter profile and has been talking up Dogecoin, which has fueled a speculative mania. Complete manipulation.

The speculative bubbles, and the complete inanity of it all, are beyond crazy now.

You have Tesla which has never made a penny selling cars, but has lived on handouts, endless borrowing and hype, now a cryptocurrency investor. .. the charlatan is fishing for new ways to justify the batshit crazy valuation and keep the con going.

You have dogecoin, which was supposed to be a joke, getting pumped up in a speculative FOMO buying panic.

And whatever the value of bitcoin should be -- well, it is completely divorced from anything fundamentally driving that value. It's just a speculative mania now.

Good luck to anyone who messes with these things. With the Federal Reserve doing more bond buying in a matter of months than it did during QE after the financial crisis, they may be able to blow their bubble to even greater heights.

But when this insanity ends, it's going to financially scar a lot of people who get surprised by the crash that is coming. The debt bomb they have created this time is unlike anything in the past.

Worse to me, though it is going to kill the country economically as the payback for the years of borowing from the future -- to the tune of trillions of dollars of capital that was insanely misallocated in all of those ways -- is going to be steep.

 

I own some bitcoin (and just hold it), and I see the potential of it in a currency debasement environment. I bought bitcoin before anyone on here did, so it's not like I don't understand a bullish argument for it.

But it is existing entirely as a speculative vehicle right now, and it is in batshit insane territory -- and there is a lot of naive money that is going to get taken from people when the dream ends.

I have no idea what the value of bitcoin should be in dollars. But I do know that dogecoin and tether should be worthless. Worse, tether is likely a scheme (just like Elon Musk now) that is probably sending the price of bitcoin to the stratosphere in an unsustainable way. The price of bitcoin is as reflective of the value of dogecoin or tether right now as it is reflective as a legit store of value or as a reliable method of exchange. And people shouldn't ignore that.

When the insanity we are seeing right now ends, a lot of people paying ridiculous prices for things in a speculative way (and worse, using margin to do it) are going to get hurt badly. Goes beyond bitcoin, but bitcoin is very visible. It will be the same way it always happens, except this time, the amount of margin driving this bodes even worse than the last several Fed-induced financial crises.



That tweet puts the reckless amount M1 money supply Jay Powell and his predecessors have flooded markets with in terms of the S&P 500. You can substitute the price of bitcoin for the stock index. I understand that *is* the reason to own bitcoin. But because bitcoin was not a firmly agreed upon store of value before the madness started, and the one flaw of it -- you can limit the number of bitcoin, but you can't limit the number of cryptocurrencies -- hasn't been solved, in some ways it may as well be a beanie baby right now.

What they are doing is like injecting heroin into a junkie with the liquidity and all of the debt buying to hold off defaults. The overdose in this case comes when they destroy the dollar, or more likely when yields spike so much (because they lose control) that all of the leverage and margin and misallocated capital they made happen tanks the economy. This is what the price of bitcoin at these levels is relying on. Good luck to anyone speculating in it.