Muh Muh Muh My Corona (virus)

The beach was a fantastic idea last summer and the papers showing outdoor spread was negligible had already been published.

Outdoors are still extremely safe without masks. Unless you plan on spending face to face time with strangers, masking outdoors is performative.

Everyone at the Rose Garden ceremony also spent the week at indoor gatherings with similar purposes or other indoor meetings, all unmasked. The infections almost certainly didn't happen at the outdoor ceremony. But that's science, and we can't let that get in the way of narrative

 

We have?

https://www-today-com.cdn.ampprojec...tdoor-exercise-amid-covid-19-outbreak-t208900

 

1. Rose Garden celebration was only partially outdoors. There are pictures. 2. Knowledge that outdoor activities were safer was known by at least late April, because early May was when Mass. Gov. Baker, who was real cautious at the beginning, let the golf courses open. I think June was outdoor dining.
Dammit Rick, you beat me to the punch on point 1.

 

Hey @RickStain or anyone else better at math than me (which is everyone) ...

Ohio governor DeWine says all restrictions in this state will be lifted when we reach 50 new cases per 100K population statewide every day for two straight weeks. Can we project that based on current rates?

Ohio was at 731 cases per 100K on Dec. 3 for the previous two weeks. We were 445 per 100K on Feb. 3. Today we are at 179.

So based on that trajectory, when can we expect to be at 50 per day? We've dropped by just over 75% in 90 days. We need to drop about another 72%. But our rate of new cases is dropping much more quickly as the days go on so it doesn't appear that it should take 90 more days. Looks like it dropped by 40% between December and February, then by 60% from February to March. So I'm thinking we hit that 50/100K by mid-May?

 

Looks reasonable to me. That's a tough standard, but to lift all restrictions it would have to be.

 

California is announcing a modification to its tier system tomorrow. It goes Purple (worst), Red, Orange, Yellow. Almost the entire state was purple all winter, we're just starting to see populous counties hit red this month.

Once 400 ZIP codes designated as "vulnerable" hit 2m vaccines given (should be within a week or two), the standards for getting into red tier loosen considerably. Once they hit 4m vaccinations, the standards for orange and yellow get relaxed. I would expect all the populous counties to hit orange by the end of the month on these new standards, and yellow soon after.

Yellow allows pretty much everything to be open, but 50% capacity for a lot of the higher-risk stuff and still masking. There's no "full open" tier, but I would expect once everything reaches yellow, repealing the order entirely would follow within a month or so.

 

Connecticut has the second-highest percentage of vaccinated citizens in the entire country, at 21.4%. It is vaxxing more than 23K people per day. Two more weeks, another 322,000 vaccinated, probably higher if they get more J&J. Might not be a clusterfuck like Texas, which has a 14% vax rate so far.

 

Is the difference between 14% and 21% where the dividing line between reckless and reasonable is? Texas will get there in a couple of weeks.

 

Of course not. But Conn. isn't opening up for two more weeks, at which point it will be at between 30-40%, still well ahead of Texas. Texas is opening right now, right?

 

Texas' order goes into effect next week. So the difference between absolutely unreasonable and perfectly reasonable is a few weeks. Seems kinda arbitrary

 

Ok, thought it went into effect tomorrow. Connecticut's numbers will still be much better when it opens up. I think people, for better but probably for worse, have just had enough.

 

I think the vaccine works, the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, and the virus is rapidly dwindling to nothing