BCS leagues expanding - yeah?

The long-rumored MWC counter move is them trying to poach SMU (makes sense) and Tulsa (eww).

 

Is this classic case of a development dying because it became public? Wonder if somebody leaked it for that purpose.

 

Two more schools they didn’t want when they split from the WAC 20-plus years ago.

 

Stolen from a particularly perceptive poster on the UAB board re the AAC expansion.

He's referring to this article: AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco responds to C-USA letter, realignment and murky future for conference

From the article:

Aresco instead pointed to a new model. Instead of bringing in established schools, he believes the conference can survive by brining in lesser schools and raising their profile once they are in the conference.

“I think what is sometimes overlooked is what the American Athletic Conference has done in elevating programs that may not have been at the level they’re at now,” Aresco said. “In terms of the conference, our goals and vision have not changed. I think once we reconstitute we’re going to continue our approach. As in trying to become an autonomous six conference.”

Reading between those lines, I think the current "hot" Sun Belt teams are off the board. They do not fit the AAC profile in many of the desired categories.

UAB is the clear 1st choice and probably the only one that has unanimous support. After that, I think Charlotte is next as they have the 2nd most boxes checked:
1) Urban;
2) Good market;
3) Strong potential corporate sponsorships;
4) Airline hub;
5) sports media production hub (ESPN, SEC Network, ACC Network, NASCAR media HQs there which creates some synergy with the broadcast partner. This rarely gets mentioned but it is an overlooked plus).
6) Potential for growth;
7) Decent basketball history that is better than other candidates;
8) History with AAC schools and administrators;
9) Geographic fit;
10) Progressive administration committed to athletics.
11) Academic fit.
12) Potential rivalries.
What they don't have is football success, stadium size or overall fan base. Which brings Aresco's comment back into view. Could the AAC elevate Charlotte? Are they a similar institution to the AAC teams that just left? Yes and yes.

Given those factors, Charlotte will be a compromise pick that gets through fairly easily. They aren't in the top 4 right now in current football resume but they're one everyone will agree on in terms of boxes checked. They don't get many *bad* scores. Some of the football programs that are better than Charlotte won't get that consensus.

In fact, down the road, I won't be at all surprised to see Charlotte become an excellent AAC program and the city hosting conference championships and maybe even the conference HQ someday. The sports industry infrastructure in Charlotte is huge and competitive.

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Just on straight football/basketball performance, Louisiana Tech would look like clearly the No. 2 choice after UAB. Probably ditto for Marshall. But I think the AAC would view La Tech and Marshall as being at their ceiling. Good programs but they're like Southern Miss with some challenges they would have a hard time changing: Small market, small budget, little room for budget growth, significantly increased recruiting competition. Especially Louisiana Tech.

They question they seem to be asking is whether the next schools can potentially become a Houston or UCF. Not whether than can become Louisiana or App State.

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If you want to understand why some of these schools that have been winning a lot of football games aren't getting mentioned in AAC circles, you can zero in on their budgets.

The most subsidized FBS athletic programs in the AAC footprint, by percent of budget are:

-- Coastal Carolina, a whopping 87 percent!
-- South Alabama, 82 percent
-- Troy, 81 percent
-- Buffalo, 81 percent
-- FIU, 79 percent
-- North Texas, 75 percent
-- Western Kentucky, 72 percent
-- UTEP, 70 percent

You don't start getting to schools seriously mentioned until:
-- UTSA, 68 percent
-- Charlotte, 66 percent
-- Old Dominion, 66 percent
-- UAB, 65 percent
-- Georgia State 65 percent

The highest subsidized AAC team currently is Houston at 69 percent, followed by South Florida at 61 percent. East Carolina at 54 percent. No other AAC team is above 50 percent. Considering their overall higher budgets, you can see where high enrollment matters.


https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

 

I knew Charlotte had a new stadium, but had no idea it only held 18,000 people.

 

Charlotte plays in a 15,000 seat stadium - and can’t fill it. If they are going to dip down that low they might as well look at some of the bigger Metroplex high schools.

 

Charlotte is expected to expand that to 30-35k soon, certainly if they get an invite. Yeah, can't fill that either, unless they get some help from a visiting ECU team or something. Still, the view expressed here is that the AAC is likely to look at the Charlotte, UTSA, FAU, GSU type schools. UAB seems to be virtually a done deal at this point, knock wood.

 

From what I've seen on TV, it's very nice. Maybe they don't fill it, but at least it feels like there's a crowd there when they draw 10-11K. Much better than playing in a huge empty stadium like Georgia State does.

And if it can be expanded, it's all they need.

 

Tell me about it. We just got away from having 20 to 30k in a 70k mausoleum. Worse than that, Legion Field was not built with TV in mind. There are only camera positions on the home side, facing the perpetually empty visitor bleachers.

 

Georgia State plays in the renovated and renamed Turner Field, which only seats 26,000. It might be empty, but it's not exactly huge.

 

Or about how many Braves fans showed up for their last postseason appearance there.

 

So many presidents and boards of trustees get seduced by the alleged benefits of having a football team.
1) They know they can pass the costs to students with fees.
2) At this point -- and this is particularly true for large public schools -- you're expected to have a team. If you don't, you get labeled as something less than a college. People wonder if there's something wrong with you.