Ukraine Always Get What You Want

Let’s say the shoe was on the other foot and, for sake of argument, say that a NATO-led force for whatever reason invaded Belarus.
Do you think Russia would keep its military on the bench out of fear of NATO nukes or would it defend its longtime ally?
It’s my opinion that the west needs to support Ukrainian defense efforts by opening up a massive and constant supply line of military and humanitarian aid from Poland, and provide drone air support to take out artillery units shelling civilians.
At some point the west either needs to put up or shut up.

 

Your counterfactual rests on an absurd premise. It's rightly considered a diplomatic triumph that Biden was able to get the NATO and EU countries united on a course of nonviolent action in DEFENSE of Ukraine. Literally impossible, and BTW, specifically against the treaty language founding the organization, to get NATO to undertake any offensive action against another country.

 

Oh good Lord it’s a hypothetical in support of a bigger point which you either ignored or sailed over your head.

 

There's no winning for Russia. They are the staggering drunk in the alleyway, wildly lunging at anything that moves.

 

That seams like an apt description, but it is a staggering drunk with way too much power at its fingertips.

 

I trust President Biden not to lose his shit and start a nuclear war. Hell, I don't even think former President Trump would have actually done that, if only because he is far too dedicated to his own well-being.

I do not have that same faith in Putin.

 

OoP-

I'm not going to be one of these Twitter jackasses who presumes to understand the full strengths of the Russian military,
but do you not feel underwhelmed by the performance? The overselling of this military's prowess is the true stroke of genius.
I read the experts on the ground. Russia is losing the battle of logistics - swiftness of movement - and that's all warfare is.
Whether it's 1822 or 2022.

 

So because in some unlikely scenario we’d see Russia (who had more of a formal alliance to Belarus than NATO does to Ukraine) escalate to possible nuclear war, NATO should do that here? Air strikes would escalate this conflict in ways the West really doesn’t want and it shouldn’t be judged based on what a crack pot would do if the tables were (absurdly unlikely) reversed. Increase aid, sure, but I think NATO has correctly opted against anything that would lead to an actual shooting conflict with Russia.

 

Russia is doing it backwards. They’re sending in the tanks first and doing the shock and awe last.

 

I still like Stonekettle's solution for the convoy (the real one). Pulverize both ends of the formation and negotiate with the middle - and make it snappy.

A page from the 1991 Gulf War. When the 'Scud Stud' would have been an instant social media darling.

I say this while literally eating a breakfast HoHo on a pullout couch. Who knows what to do about the convoy.