Ukraine Always Get What You Want

I think you're part wrong and part right. I think Zelensky solidified it and, frankly, the brutally and totality of what Russia is doing that finally swayed Germany and maybe Switzerland. But I think we'll; find when all is said and done that Biden and his administration spent months behind the scenes pulling the threads together. I think releasing the intelligence systematically in the weeks leading up to the invasion was part of that. I think not being out in front and bragging about doing the groundwork is another prong. This is an administration willing to work with our allies, rather than a) alienate them and b) act superior.

 

Perhaps Russia's biggest problem is that their usual military doctrine in such a case is very artillery heavy. Normally they move their guns and missile launchers up into range or encircle the target city and shell the hell out of it for two to four weeks, then go in and take it. The problem is that they A. Want to take a useable city with most of it's buildings and industry intact or repairable in order to use them and B. They don't want to utterly alienate the population since they are ethnically similar and they hope to occupy Ukraine for the long term.

They tried to make this a quick, two to four day special operations type strike where they quickly took Kyiv and installed a puppet government, and they failed. More than that, the Ukrainian leadership and populace rallied and built real defenses. They mobilized militia and got effective international backing.

Now the Russians are frustrated, and they may return to their more usual doctrine and just brutally beat down the resistance - but if they do, they risk the international community sucking it up and coming in to defend Ukraine. NATO can do it if they manage to summon the will, but Russia isn't the Serbs or Bosnia. They're scary, particularly for neighboring countries who have had the Russians invade them before.

If he is pressed, I don't for a second put it past Putin to toss a nuclear missile out over the Med and set it off as a warning shot. Actually firing on another country, I dunno if he'll do that in less than an all out situation, but for saber rattling he is absolutely capable of doing this. If he does, there are countries that will almost certainly back the hell off, too.

 

I’m not sure if they really need to twist themselves into a pretzel so much to avoid joining the shooting. There are much more dire consequences if NATO gets involved here and the member countries need to be ready for that.

Yes for sure we’re handling similar situations differently between Yugoslavia and here with many of the arguments being similar. But Russia just poses that much greater risk. Forget nukes for a second, if NATO gets involved even just to provide air cover, Russia has the ability to open up the war to Europe in general. I’m not sure if Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are ready for that. But throw nukes into the equation, and there is a real reason to pause. So I think that needs to be considered much more so than the original “what would Putin do?” premise.

Not for nothing, I agree NATO and the US have to consider at what point can they agree standing on the sidelines is no longer an option and would that point come without a NATO country being attacked? But for now, as you said, we have to be prudent in the approach.

 

I don't think their conventional forces are all that scary, at least not related to what it should be given their size and resources. I was making reference to the nuclear option.

 

No, really?

 

Don't forget how smart trump was because of something an uncle of his was....

 

I think I've said this before, and I know I'm a rational thinker when it comes to nukes.
Surely if Putin starts talking seriously of launching a nuke, someone in his inner circle will point out that Russia can't launch one, and the rest of the world just sit back and say, "Yeah, boy that was a good one." If Russia launches, many Russians will die.

 

But they didn't get a permit to protest. Even in Amerika you have to get a permit to protest!