The Economy

Probably not. The supply chain issues have been as much (probably more) a function of a demand spike than the narrative people were fed that it was entirely the virus. We had a double whammy of Congress essentially helicopter dropping a couple of trillion dollars in pockets all at once, while the Fed went all in on in monetizing it. That orgy of spending / demand on the back of that has all but worked its way through, leaving us with just the monetary inflation it created because the fed blew up the supply of money by 40 percent in a year and half. But with that $2+ trillion dollars already passed out and already spent, the supply chain problems have already eased a lot. Problems will continue to linger, but unless the virus rages again, or wwiii is breaking out, or they do more “stimulus” — like the arsonist pretending to be the firefighter— the worst of shortages are likely behind us.

Particularly, since we are heading into a recession (a stagflationary environment actually) which will curtail demand even further. Already is.

FWIW, the Fed’s half-assed gesture to address the flation part of the stagflation, starting with the measly 25 basis point rate hike they are going to do next week, will be way way too little too late. We’re going to end up with the worst of both worlds. … runaway prices and the recession. They f’d themselves. They need to aggressively hike rates all at once to rein in the monetary inflation they brought on us , but the mountain of debt our economy is built on because of all of the easy money means that even a modest semi-normalization (forget a Paul Volcker type hike) will bring on a massive credit crisis greater than what we saw in 2008. That is why they are dithering and don’t have any strategy. There is no good strategy for what they created.