Ukraine Always Get What You Want

Maybe.

 

Ragu gets to the nub of the matter. Russia's military, his main threat in foreign affairs, has been badly damaged by his own decision to invade. He's in a quagmire of his own making.

 

Judging by this thread, Putin's main threat in foreign affairs are his nukes.

Day to day, his economic and political leverage is his oil. Which the Western "Allies" continue to pay for, even as NATO and the UN Security Council meet in the conference room to weigh / consider / mull.

So right now we're paying Putin to occupy Ukraine. I'm sure we'll ramp up those sanctions again any day.

Problem is, Putin doesn't care. Putin digs in, resupplies, and occupies the eastern third of Ukraine. Stalemate. Ukraine does not join NATO.

In the meantime, Ukraine bleeds out while Zelenskyy begs for more and better help.

 

As of now, Russia holds much less than the "eastern third" of Ukraine. Ukraine wants more significant weapons transfers, naturally, and is likely to get them. Since Ukraine is never going to march on Moscow, the war will eventually end (probably not for a long time) with some form of settlement. The terms of that settlement will be up to Ukraine. I don't think they're in the mood for any compromise right now.

 

Again, maybe.

I imagine Putin trying to draw a straight line from Odesa to Kharkiv. Maybe he can, maybe he can't. But a settlement formally ceding any amount of Ukraine to Russia or Russian control; that weakens Ukraine and keeps Ukraine out of NATO and/ or the EU is a win for Putin.

Ukraine war in maps: Tracking the Russian invasion

 

That map looks to amateur me like the recipe for stalemate.

 

Probably, but I think what comes next depends upon Putin moving resources from the north to the east; ie, how many and how fast into that area from Kharkiv down to Donetsk; and up from the south to sit on Odesa.

He only has to hold that real estate until he negotiates the settlement.

 

But what is the state of the remaining Russian army? They’ve been fighting and sustaining heavy losses for weeks. Putin is going to throw I’ll-equipped and exhausted troops back into battle? They can bomb cities and target civilians and make the Ukrainians bleed out, but is that going to lead to victory, or whatever face-saving thing Russia can say to end the war?

 

We'll see.

 

Evacuating civilians is not only a humane policy, but a practical one. It removes one huge responsibility for Ukraine's forces and robs Russia of a cheap and easy target.

 

Putin has an incoming class of conscripts. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/01/russia-military-army-conscripts-draft/

He'll re-arm and re-equip and send more troops to die.

It's important to remember that this isn't standard nation-state geopolitics we're arguing about. Putin's a terrorist. Not sure how many more orphanages and hospitals he has to shell before we admit that.

He's a mob boss shaking down Europe as part of his protection racket.