Ukraine Always Get What You Want

Richmond wasn't just the capital, it was the main war equipment manufacturing center of the Confederacy. Also, Lee had more than enough trouble feeding his army where it was. Supplying it while cut off from railroads and in a region that didn't grow many crops or raise much livestock would've been impossible. Army would likely have melted away from desertion.

 

There also was a coldness to Grant’s brilliance
He knew he had the manpower advantage and could sustain the loss of troops that Lee couldn’t

 

The Army of Butler was much smaller than the Army of the Northern Virginia and lead by a really bad, political general. I think Grant and the Army of the Potomac would have gotten closer. McClellan did. But Grant would have not retreated after a bad day on the battlefield like McClellan did.

Grant lead the Army of the Potomac around Richmond to Petersburg, which is 24 miles south of the Confederate capital. Then he laid siege there for almost 10 months. One of the crucial actions of the campaign is when he circled Lee and got to the south of Richmond. I think if Grant goes up the James he gets to Petersburg anyway, with a lot less losses, and the siege starts. So after June, 1964 Lee can not release troops in either scenario.

 

But it took Grant 10 months to extend the lines to Five Forks to end the siege, and that was after the AoNVa was significantly depleted by the campaigns of 1864, not to mention the loss of a good chunk of Early’s Corp and the Confederate cavalry.

From Wilderness to the James, Grant took significant losses, which he was able to replace. Lee took significant losses, which he was not able to replace. So I don’t think you can discount the effect that has on the eventual siege of Petersburg.

Not to mention the need Grant would have in such a move to protect D.C.

Early came close to taking it as it was, and Lee sending II Corp north without the losses it suffered in the Overland Campaign would have required more than just VI Corp as a Union response.

Im not saying it’s certain; perhaps a lightning strike would have ended the war sooner. But it’s no sure thing.

Ironically by imposing on Lee the need to defend Richmond, Lee was pinned in place. Once Richmond fell, Lee would have been free to operate untethered to a static defensive point.

It’s for sure an interesting intellectual exercise. I’ve been doing some play testing on a board game covering the Petersburg portion of the campaign, so the work to extend the line from City Point to the west has been near and dear to my heart lately.

 

St. Petersburg is in Russia. Petersburg is in Virginia. The boyhood home of "Fo, fo and fo."

 

Once Lee abandoned Petersburg, his goal was to get into North Carolina and join the Army of Northern Virginia with Johnston's Army of Tennessee.
Grant knew if that happened, it would be bad news for his army. That's why Sailor's Creek was such a ferocious battle. There weren't as many casualties as far more famous battles, but in terms of intensity, it ranks near the top. Both sides knew what defeat there meant.

 

... and it would have been easier for Lee to slip away if Grant had made a lightning move for Richmond. Once the government was ready to accept Richmond could no longer be held, Lee's strategic possibilities opened up again. Problem historically is that finally happened well after the time when Lee could have found something effective to do.

Grant's target was the AoNVa; it's an interesting thought to consider what if he had made Richmond his objective at the start of the Overland Campaign.

Nevertheless: I believe victory on the field was a certainty for the Union at that point, as long as it didn't lose the will to fight.

 

Most likely true.
But if Lee had gotten to Johnston, Grant would have been forced to hold in place until he linked up with Sherman. The resulting battle would have been maybe the worst in human history. You could have had a quarter of a million people involved in one battle.

 

Heh. We know in such a battle Sherman would have deferred to Grant. But would Johnston have deferred to Lee???

 

Possibly not. Most people don't understand the structure of the Confederate armies, and that's lower case on purpose.
Johnston's Army of Tennessee was a force of about 90,000 at the point. Lee's Army of Northern Virginia had about 28K. That's why I always laugh when people claim Appomattox Courthouse ended the war.