The Economy

No idea where you work and just how profitable they are. But to the extent that there is any growth still in the economy -- and we are not yet seeing a sharp contraction of economic activity, even if we are already in recession or heading into one (if that's the case, the numbers showing it are going to be backward looking, though so we wouldn't know already) -- of course profits are up for a lot of businesses. Inflation is running rampant. If you sell even the same amount that you were a year ago, but what you are selling costs 9 0r 10 or 15 percent more, your profits are going to be way up. Which is what a lot of populist talk focuses on. But that business is actually worse off if what they earned is worth 10 percent less in purchasing power than it was worth a year ago. They are stagnating, if that is the case.

FWI, yeah, you are right, times are tough. ... for way more people than not. There are a lot of indicators. ... even as much of the talk in financial media circles is about how the consumer is still strong, the economy is doing good (if you ask Jay Powell, at least, even as his own regional banks keep revising their GDP numbers down to 0 to negative numbers). ...

1) Consumer credit usage has been taking off over the last few months:
Consumer credit climbs another $38 billion to set a new record - CNN
That after all the talk about how much in savings people had. .. . Note: savings are below prepandemic levels. They jumped through the roof when Congress dropped trillions of dollars from a helicopter, America went on a spending binge and the politicians who made it happen and central bankers who monetized it passed it off as a strong economy. Now what we have left to show for it is a supply /demand imbalance and runaway inflation.

2) An insane number of people are falling behind on their rent (and it's not getting talked about much).
More Than 8 Million Americans Are Late on Rent as Prices Increase

 

Yeah. Unfortunately, it doesn't help you practically as much as you'd want. That $8,000 isn't going to be buying you as much stuff as it used to. :-(

 

Didn't know where to put this, politics thread or here, but it fascninated me.

It's at the G7 meeting, Biden is walking through chatting, media is standing off to the side.

Emmanuel Macron comes rushing up and interupts, and a Reuters microphone picks up the exchange. ... He tells Biden he talked to MbZ (United Arab Emirates): "He told me two things. I'm at a maximum, maximum (production capacity). This is what he claims."

"And then he said (the) Saudis can increase by 150 (thousands barrels per day). Maybe a little bit more, but they don't have huge capacities before six months' time."



The price of oil in Globex futures immediately jumps.

I'm sure Biden will go on camera soon and attribute it all to the ubiquitous "greed" that is the determinant of prices.

Regardless. ... what fascinates me about it. ... These guys are supposedly savvy, conditioned to send a message with everything they do. Macron has to be aware there are microphones around him. Did he just forget himself, or was this really somehow done with a purpose?

The only thing I can think of would be to set expectations low when he really is anticipating supply to hit the market soon because of something he really knows?

I can't figure these things out ever.