Ukraine Always Get What You Want

I think most of this stuff defies the reality of the world.

The U.S. doesn't rely on Saudi oil, per se. Oil exists in a global marketplace. Take all of the producers combined and you have the worldwide supply. Then add all of the demand, and you have the market for oil. Everyone relies on Saudi oil. The same way that everyone relies on U.S. oil. The same way that everyone relies on Russian oil. Even if Russia is effectively reduced to selling its oil to China and India rather than Western Europe, it's really akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the ship, because the total supply is determining that half of the supply-demand equation. There is limited supply that fluctuates based on global factors, and demand rises and falls based on economic activity, and those dynamics determine the price in a global marketplace.

The notion that Germany should have somehow done something magical to make it less reliant on Russian gas is a little absurd to me. Sure, it could have done something.... At the cost of a lot of economic growth, cheaper energy costs than the alternatives, and a higher standard of living that Germany has enjoyed. What should Germany have done? Passed a law that mandates everyone has to throw out their gas boiler and heat their homes with wood that they go into the forrest and chop? At what cost?

 

Putin is going to torture Europe now.

Russian gas is such a relatively small part of the natural resources revenue Russia's government is bringing in, but the gas is vitally important to Germany. He doesn't want them stockpiling gas before the winter, so they are reliant on him. ... so he's doing a sadistic, "Yup, we have to shut down for maintenance" games, then reopening at reduced flows, then coming back and telling them he has to reduce the amount going through again. He is going to wear them down until they back off the sanctions that are supposed to start and get on board with concessions of him annexing part of Ukraine. It will probably work, too.