MLB 2022: The Long and Winding Thread

As a huge Hosmer fan from his Royals run, the 2014-16 Royals were the perfect situation for him as they treasured contact and not power. That was his offensive game. Spray doubles to left center. Make contact and play defense.

Then the Royals by late 2016 tried to hit homers and it was a colossal mess. They tried to be like everyone else. Hosmer is a contact guy. Once again, KC got his best miles.

 

The thing with Jorge Lopez is that he's near 30 and has had precisely one good half-season during his career. It just happens to be this one. Yes, I'm sad as an O's fan that he's gone, but I also don't hate Elias for making the move, because who's to say he doesn't regress to the mean at some point? Lopez last year as a starter: 3-14, 6.07 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 21 HR allowed. Lopez's other heavy season as a starter was in 2019 with the Royals: 4-9, 6.33 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 27 HR allowed.

Trust me, I'm rooting for him in Minnesota. But keeping him isn't exactly the no-brainer it's being made out to be.

 

I believe Byron Buxton hit a Lopez pitch halfway to St. Cloud for a walk-off about six weeks ago.

 

I like that trade for both teams. Relievers are so volatile, especially guys like Lopez. How many guys can you really trust? Hader has been the best in the game for a while, but he had a terrible July. Taylor Rogers is second in the majors in saves and he fell off badly enough recently that he lost the closing job in San Diego. Edwin Diaz is having one of his dominant seasons, but he has had stretches bad enough that he lost the job for the Mets in the past.

 

You know what I don't want to hear if I'm a fan? I don't want to hear my GM saying that he's happy the guy he traded is getting a chance to pitch for a contender.

No, make yourself a contender and be happy the guy is pitching for YOU.

 

Yeah, he did. In fact, Lopez absolutely blew two games that weekend, I believe. But it was also just about the only time he was seriously touched this season.

 

What would you have traded to make the Orioles a "contender"? Dip into the prospects for a rental? It's silly talk. I've been a fan all of my life and I can't get worked up over these moves, because the ceiling for this year is pretty low. Minnesota is a contender because it's in a shit division. Lopez's value will never be higher. You got four guys for a dude who got hammered on a per-start basis last year and has had exactly one good five-month stretch as a major leaguer. The more I think about it, it would have been dumb not to trade him. From what I understand, Elias flew to Texas today to visit the team and assure them that Baltimore is in a position to a) promote high-level prospects and b) spend some damn money in the offseason for once. If anything, this season has accelerated the timeline for part b of that sentence. I'll believe it when I see it, of course, this being the Orioles. But there is impetus to spend on starting pitching this offseason. Without this season and the unexpected growth, there probably isn't.

 

Hosmer has zero seasons with a slugging greater than .500. His career OPS+ is 108, and his three year full-season highs were 133 (2017), 122 (2015) and 118 (2013). I don't ever think he's been especially great, merely pretty OK, but his draft status (third overall) kind of tricked people for a long time into thinking he was going to turn the corner at some point. His #1 comparable on B-R is J.T. Snow, which seems perfect. Royals dodged a huge bullet when he didn't take their $100M, because the Padres offered $144M.

 

Actually didn't hear that from the Orioles' GM, Cosmo. I heard it from the Rangers' GM talking about Matt Bush today. Threw you a cutter there!

But now that you mention it, I think there's basis to think that when a guy dominates for a half-season -- especially showing the arsenal he did night after night -- he might maintain at least some level of success for a while going forward. And again, I'm tired of seeing proven production dealt away for unproven promise.

 

All true. Also true Hosmer is a huge upgrade from what the Red Sox have put out at first base this season and last.

 

True! Marginal upgrade for them, although I imagine they hope that he opts out.

 

At this stage of his career I’d put Hosmer in the Mitch Moreland category