Ukraine Always Get What You Want

At this point, a Russian officer is as much cannon fodder as the rank and file.

Putin loses 100th colonel as US says 80,000 Russian troops dead or wounded | Daily Mail Online

 

Ukraine Live Updates: Russia Lost at Least Eight Warplanes in Crimea, Satellite Images Show

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/11/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

Russian warplanes destroyed in Crimea airbase attack, satellite images show

 

A picture from the Russian air base that was hit.

 

That's a damn expensive strike.

 

Anyone see the reports going around about the wargaming the DoD is doing for a China invasion of Taiwan.

Yikes!

 

Yeah. Ugh.

U.S. Military 'Failed Miserably' in Taiwan Invasion Wargame

 

I'm 100 percent certain the DoD has been constantly wargaming an invasion of Taiwan for years.

Also: Count me among the skeptical that China could conduct a seaborne invasion of Taiwan without first significantly degrading Taiwan's air force and other assets capable of interdiction attacks over the Taiwan Strait. It would take a massive, massive logistics train to undertake such an invasion; I'm not convinced the Chinese Navy is up to the task.

 

There have also been a lot of reports that they don't have the landing craft necessary to pull it off.
A modern invasion like that wouldn't be like storming the beaches at Normandy, where landing craft pull up and soldiers pour out to fight against prepared defenses. China would certainly soften up Taiwan with air and missile strikes long before they tried to land a single ground unit. But you still need to be able to cross a good bit of open ocean at some point.

 

I think you're someone who already knows this, but even after you land dudes, you gotta keep bringing gas, food, and bullets across the straits to sustain combat operations. We've watched Russia fail to do this over the land; China would have to do it over the sea, under the constant threat of SSM strikes plus sub and air attack.

It took thousands and thousands of ships to land, fuel and feed five infantry divisions and three airborne divisions during D. Day. This was against a German army with basically no serious navy and total control of the skies over the channel. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have no such assurances.

Also: A surprise Chinese attack on Taiwan is incredibly unlikely. The assembly of the necessary troops and the logistics train would be obvious to the intelligence community.

 

Live Updates: Ukraine Estimates Sharply Higher Russian Casualty Toll in Crimea Blasts

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukraine-russia/

Russia-Ukraine war: Zelenskiy tells officials to stop leaking military tactics; UN sounds nuclear plant warning – live | Ukraine | The Guardian

 

I like how they can describe the entire playbook, but the name of the exercise is classified. Big brain thinking there.