2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

Hurricane Tracker App
Just did some analysis on the 12Z GFS & 12Z EURO runs which both show a major Gulf hurricane in 7-10 days. Runs show low wind shear and that along with warm to hot water, favors what the models show. Will write a post in app soon. Could have big problems.

 

There is some sadistic crap in Mother Nature that these things happen in the middle of the night. Disasters suck. They suck worse in the dark.

 

As for Fiona’s future, the system’s updated path forecasts it to travel further away from Florida, with the center moving northwest into the Atlantic and threatening Bermuda by the end of the week. Fiona is forecast to intensify into a Category 4 major hurricane with 130 mph winds and 160 mph gusts by Wednesday, the NHC said.

 

This motherfucker has my undivided attention. The last one that looked this ominous so far out was (I think) Ike.

The Gulf has been virtually unstirred all season and the energy can be counted in terajoules.

 

I completely understand. I have my fingers crossed for everybody. I honestly believe months/climate have shifted, but I hope the peak window is rapidly closing.
Of course, Cat 1s and 2s can do extensive damage with flooding along the Atlantic coast deep into October. I know. My dumb ass was sleeping in my truck in the middle of Matthew in 2016.

 

Even mere tropical storms that park somewhere can cause biblical flooding, like Allison and post-landfall Harvey did over Houston.

This time of year, though, Texas tends to get late-season heat domes (like the one it's under now) that repel tropical disturbances. The main concern will be from NOLA east.

 

The remnants of Gaston stalled out over Richmond in 2004 and flooded the shit out of Shockoe Bottom. A foot of rain plus poor drainage equaled total disaster.

 

From our local meteorologist (we are damn spoiled to have James Spann in a fringe Top 50 market):

Cooler Friday; Eyes On The Tropics

Also of note, Fiona is projected to hit the Maritimes and/or Newfoundland this weekend as an intact hurricane.

 

Think how weird it must be to live in Newfoundland and get a hurricane warning.

 

About every three years for a tropical system, every 15 years for a hurricane, according to this very oddly designed page:

St John's,Newfoundland Hurricanes (hurricanecity.com)