Ukraine Always Get What You Want

He's not dropping nukes. Don't be silly.

 

He doesn't need to drop a nuke to create a nuclear crisis in the region.

 

Ukraine says Russia strikes Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant, reactors undamaged

www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russian-missile-strikes-close-to-nuclear-plant-ukraine-says

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...c8fdb6-37f0-11ed-b8af-0a04e5dc3db6_story.html

 

Translation: "Judging by what is happening and still about to happen, this week marks either the eve of our imminent victory, or the eve of nuclear war. I can't see anything third."

That's a Russian saying it.

 

All Putin needs to do is overtly or subliminally hint at lobbing a nuke at Kyiv and the world quivers.

That, and cutting off his own profits by embargoing his own gas to Europe, are his only cards.

 

You don’t at least take pause at the idea? It isn’t like he’s threatening to rip ass in a crowded elevator

 

If Putin launches nukes, that’s it. We’re done as a species, and the Earth resets itself in 100,000 years or more, not even the blink of an eye in geologic time. Maybe the next inhabitants won’t be as stupid as humans have been.

 

On the other hand, just one or two Russian nukes sent to Ukraine should make the world recoil like it hasn't since WWII. That should hasten Vlad's demise.

 

This WSJ story is incredible: The Ragtag Army That Won the Battle of Kyiv and Saved Ukraine

 

And it’s paywalled.

 

Given their showing in Ukraine, I'm not positive that any Russian nukes actually get to intended targets, and THAT hostile of an action pretty much means they're obliterated from the board.

 

The speed with which all this has come together makes me wonder if Putin didn't get a few diplomatic earfuls during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Samarkand last week. Narendra Modi was explicit in his criticism, and while the readout of the Xi-Putin meeting had the usual lovey-doveyness it's clear China is not pleased with the way things are going in Ukraine. Even Erdogan, Russia's biggest backer within NATO, has been clear about how "problematic" things are for Russia and how Moscow shouldn't keep any of the territory it invaded.

If China, India, and Turkey are all leaning on Russia to wrap things up at the same time as Ukrainian forces are retaking vast chunks of occupied territory, the "referendums" in Donetsk and Luhansk could be the Kremlin's attempt to secure a diplomatic fig leaf on the way out the door. Ensure the presence of more friendly buffer states while you still have control, hail the triumph of the people's will and your own magnanimity for ending people's suffering, and get out before the few friends you have left turn on you. It's farcical and far from the loving "de-Nazification" of Ukraine that Russia was pitching back in February, but it might be the best of a bunch of bad options. Targeting civilian infrastructure isn't having the desired effect, and using nukes would make Russia so toxic internationally as to turn any remaining neutral nations against it. Even China's patience with Russia will only stretch so far before it starts to hurts its own economic well-being.




EDIT: Or the referendums could make things worse. In that case, the fig leaf would be cover to do more of what's already not working. Part of Russia's messaging has been talking up how restrained it's been in its handling of Ukraine, so maybe this is how the Kremlin thinks it can take off the gloves with the least blowback from its allies.