Ukraine Always Get What You Want

How did Navalny let it get to this, comrade?

 

Given Russia's problems in Ukraine, you do wonder what is the worth of being a "partner" or ally of Russia's at this point. It's not like they have much influence in the world - they're like an old, rabid dog, that could probably still do some damage - but isn't healthy enough to rely on to guard your house.

 

Moscow 4.

 

And then what? You're not gonna get another Gorby, or a drunken Yeltsin, or even a Navalny.

You're gonna get a stone-hearted Kremlin hawk much worse than Putin, with a damn score to settle, to boot.

Just because X number of Russians may be wishing for a new leader does NOT mean they want the U.S. dictating who that leader is. That's the disconnect people just cannot grasp.

No matter how much you hated Trump, or Bush, or whoever, how would you, a citizen, have felt had another nation captured or killed him?

To Russians, the U.S. and NATO carved up Yugoslavia like a Thanksgiving turkey, with zero repercussions. And then you go screaming "Madman!" when someone tries to carve up Ukraine. I happen to think both were/are horribly wrong.

 

Won’t work.



Meanwhile, the Russians are losing their potential allies.

Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan ban their citizens in Russia from participating in war
https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-closes-sanctions-dodging-loopholes-for-russia-belarus

 

My favorite is that they’re going to conscript the protestors they arrest into the army. Because it is always such a clutch move to arm the people who despise you.

 

They're going to round up 300k reluctant men with pressgangs and hand them weapons of war. That should liven things up.

Or maybe they'll just turn them loose on the battlefield and tell them to find a dead man with a gun, like Stalin did in the early days of Operation Barbarossa.

 

Russia is still the world's third-largest oil producer and second-largest natural gas producer (and the biggest gas exporter since almost 90 percent of US-produced gas is used domestically). It has the most nuclear weapons in the world, is the second-biggest arms exporter, and has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Toxic as Russia is at the moment, there are still plenty of countries out there eager to buy what Moscow is selling -- especially those who want a reliable energy provider who doesn't ask awkward questions and provides cover at the UN should their own activities draw the ire of the West. Developing countries need cheap energy and a stable economy far more than Western finger-wagging and lectures about the "rules-based international order".

Staying close to Russia makes sense for China because it's the only other world power close to ideologically aligned with it and turning up its nose at Moscow over Ukraine would leave China isolated on the world stage. We're entering another multipolar era, and the geopolitical logic that applied in the early 20th century also applies now -- in a world of five (i.e. the US, EU, China, Russia, and India), you must always be one of three. The US-EU and China-Russia sides are generally aligned despite some internal differences, and India is trying to have the best of both worlds despite its ability to avoid choosing sides shrinking by the day.

 

Europe could have invested in secondary markets. It opted for ESG and green principles.

 

China also is clearly the dominant power in its relationship with Russia. John McCain once called Russia "a gas station with an army." Now it's gonna be China's gas station.

 

Eh, shit happens.