Ukraine Always Get What You Want

"In here, there were two guys killing each other, but I guess that's better than twenty million." - Rocky Balboa

 

"The central proposition that Putin had with the Russian people was that he would provide them with a prosperous, consumerist life (that was happening anyway) in exchange for making him the dictator. He has now violated that promise. And that recognition is now spreading like wildfire. Putin is doomed."

 

The next guy is likely to be worse than Putin.

With the notable exception of Gorbachev, that's just how Russia rolls.

 

I feel like the opposite. All of their leaders since Stalin, aside from Putin, have been to some degree hapless. Was Brezhnev scaring anyone? Was anyone going to be scared of the guy slamming his shoe on his desk at the UN? If there were party buses in Moscow in the 1990s, Yeltsin would've been the driver.

 

Ask anybody who lived through the Prague Spring or the Soviet takeover of Afghanistan that question.

Hell, ask anybody who had to deal with the side effects of the Sovs reaching nuclear parity with the United States that question.

The side effects of the Brezhnev economic stagnation weren’t known at the time and are still having effects. We only had what we saw from the outside to go on.

 

Seems like ole Vlad has been making up ground lately like Assault in the Belmont.

 

The 1990s changed the equation. Russians saw what life was like under a weak, U.S.-approved leader, and that is their "never again" moment. It's why Putin's support remained strong ("what if a Gorby or Yeltsin replaces him" ) and why Putin's replacement won't be a doddering or drunken fool.

 

Recruiting is going well.

 

A burning desire to get out of military service.

 

Angry Staffer has it right.

More troops aren’t going to fix the 3M problems the Russian armies have.

And this isn’t some former Soviet Republic (with no external support) they can just brute force. At this point the Ukraines are at least a near-peer, and their armed forces have gained - not lost - combat capabilities since the war started.

 

I just spoke to a client who has in-laws in Russia and everyone is getting the f**k out and leaving most behind, including the worthless rubles.

 

I worked in Russia for a year. I understand the Russian's feelings about the 90's and how Putin gave the citizenry the feeling that the country was strong again, especially since commodity prices increased and boosted the economy.

But Russia never developed anything in their economy besides natural resources? Some heavy industry but that about it. So now Russia is fighting a war where NATO is providing superior weapons and has an economy about 10 times the size. Russia is not going to win a war of attrition.

It is hard for Putin to cut a deal for two reasons. His hole card was that the Ukrainians had seemed unable to win back territory. That dynamic has changed. Second, no one trusts Putin.

Maybe this escalation will work and the Russians take over Ukraine. But if the Russians keep throwing more men into a quagmire I think the dynamics in Russia will change.