2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

Supposedly Ian is going to make landfall in Venice, according to NBC
The people who live on Tampa Bay are probably going to get the worst of it

 

Wow. That's a lot more of an eastern turn than the models predicted. I couldn't make out enough detail on the NHC map to guess. That puts Sarasota, Bradenton and Palmetto (hello, Frog Creek RV park) in the equation.

 

That’s why I felt uneasy even when the models were moving west
The European model kept it east
Looks like it was right again

 

Yeah, the last NHC discussion last night had Ian being affected by a frontal boundary, but at the time, they didn't think it would be sufficient to turn it this early. Turns out they may have been too optimistic.

 

Here's this morning's key discussion point:

Dropsonde data from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the
western Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this trough, the associated
southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the
keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the
hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is
likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously
anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track
remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida.

 

My late parents used to live in Venice and shudder to think how they would have dealt with this.

BTW, the mayor of Tampa was on CNN with Don Lemon last night and repeatedly kept referring to the hurricane as "Ivan" and not "Ian."
Do the two names look alike? Yes. But they don't sound alike.

Was she not discussing this storm ad nauseum with her team? If so, she shouldn't be making that mistake repeatedly. I can't imagine it engendered much confidence in the residents.

 

Is this DeSantis's Katrina?

That's a rack attack!

 

They sound closer if you pronounce "Ivan" the way it's supposed to be pronounced (eee-VAN).

 

There is another system building in the Atlantic that has a 70% chance of forming in the next two days. The current projected path doesn't really look like it's headed toward the U.S. It would have to take a serious left turn.

 

All my prep work is done. This mess might come with 20 miles of my backyard; it'll be tons of fun in the middle of the night.

 

Good luck. We're all counting on you.

 

While Tampa is getting all the attention, won’t Key West be in a bad spot on the eastern side of the eye?