Ukraine Always Get What You Want

I think that remains to be seen. I would not be surprised if much of Western equipment works better in the mud than the Russian equipment. For example, the Ukrainians use a lot of Humvees to drive through gaps in Russian lines to launch blitz attacks. Can a Humvee go through mud?

 

Mud won't be an issue once the ground freezes. Typically mud happens in the spring after the thaw.

 

This is where what the President said about talking to Putin at the G20 Summit is so important: there will be no talk about Ukraine without Ukraine.

Zelensky and his people know best whether they can use the winter weather to their advantage in battle, or if it is better to allow peace talks to commence to help his forces rearm, reinforce and reinvigorate for a Spring offensive.

 

Partly concerns about terrorism, partly a holdover from decades in which US foreign policy favored conservative monarchs and authoritarians over "revolutionary" governments, partly because Saudi is the primary counterweight to Iranian influence in the region, and partly oil. Saudi has the world's second-largest proven oil reserves and is the world's leading oil exporter by a considerable margin. The US economy -- and the global economy in general -- needs affordable oil to function as currently constructed, so given Saudi's own exports and its influence within OPEC, the US needs to do all it can to keep Saudi from drifting too far out of a friendly orbit. And what is the main US selling point internationally these days? Making weapons of war, selling them, and providing security for those who can't (or won't) do so for themselves.

This won't change anytime soon, either, despite certain senators' very public grousing on Twitter. The US foreign policy establishment (a.k.a. "the blob") has already reverted to a Cold War view of the world and is treating competition with China as a zero-sum game -- every country not securely on Team USA is one that could join Team China, and that is not acceptable. The US could compete with China in terms of international investment and development assistance if it really wanted to, but 1) it doesn't, 2) the military-industrial complex would never let that happen at the expense of Pentagon funding, and 3) US aid tends to ask awkward questions about little things like "human rights" and the proper application of bone saws, things Chinese aid and investment conveniently ignore. In the eyes of the blob, pulling out of Saudi and/or ending defense cooperation would risk "losing" Saudi to China, crippling US influence in the Middle East, and leaving the US with no influence on three of the world's five top oil exporters (Russia and Iran being the other two).

The idea was that keeping Saudi sweet through providing security and supporting its regional influence efforts would ensure stable, affordable oil prices and a government in Riyadh that would go along with US interests. That has clearly failed, but even a cursory reading of the history of US foreign policy shows that a policy failing is no guarantee it will be abandoned. And of course, if Trump wins in 2024 -- something Saudi very much wants and will likely try to help make happen -- the whole issue is moot and the unquestioning US-Saudi lovefest will return. We might even see the return of The Orb.

 

I understand all of that. My point is they’ve kicked us in the nuts repeatedly for almost 30 years. We occasionally get cheap oil. They get continuous defense protection. They can send their citizens to attack us on 9/11 and we’re like, whatevs, oil oil oil.

 

Putin uses the cease fire pause for 'peace negotiations' to rearm and resupply.

Then he attacks again.

He's done this in Chechnya and Georgia and Crimea.

 

Yeah, part of me thinks this is the time to put Russia on its heels, but I’ll trust Zelensky’s instincts.

 

My guess is we’re going to see a lot of frozen Invaders’ bodies left behind in failing equipment. They barely have enough supplies, do we think the heat works in their vehicles?

 

Not sure how much this matters in a "war" being fought by missile attacks against civilian targets.

 

Putin is running out of cruise missiles and is resorting to using Iranian kamikaze drones that are theoretically easier to shoot down.

 

Hence the reference to rearming

 

Rearm missiles during a temporary cease fire? How quickly can they make them?