President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

My guess is the underestimation of the number of younger voters voting and high turnout was what skewed the polling. People forget the second part of polling. You call 100 people for example, get their responses, but then you "balance" the cumulative answers into what you think the electorate will be, demographics, etc. and if you are wrong on your electorate forecast, your poll is worthless.

 

Nevada truly could have gone either way, and you don’t often go wrong guessing that Americans will err on the side of name recognition.

That said, polls are stupid.

 

A few thoughts on polling...

--It's a standard GOP tactic at least around here to flood the zone with bullshit polls two weeks out showing an inevitable Republican win.

--You cannot poll young people. They aren't answering the phone, they aren't answering your questions.

--At least here, the polls bake in an assumption that Republican turnout will be more enthusiastic than Democratic/Independent turnout. That doesn't seem to be playing out.

And one big thing: political reporters are not focused on the things that voters are focused on. In Arizona the political reporters thought Hobbs was dead because of outrage over her refusal to debate Lake. I never heard a single person outside of the newsroom ever bring it up. Know what I heard over and over from non-news people? "Kari Lake seemed a lot nicer when she was on TV."

 

Couldn’t let her freak flag fly on TV. Until she ran.

 

Tulsi Gabbard Joins Fox News as a Paid Contributor

finally an opposing viewpoint

 

And I've said this before, a better indication of a cnadidate's "strength" isn't money, but number of donors and from where. Hard to verify volunteers, or voter contacts, - but those are also better measurements of a candidates strength. Whether that message resonates with enough voters is unknown - but having a few billionaires throw some money at a race doesn't suddenly make a candidate viable. I don't think I watch enough TV these days to have seen 10 ads during the general election.

 

At least she has a second career option.

 

… Winding your way down on MAGA Street
Dead in your head after reading his Tweet
Another lie another day
It’s fake news you say
And they’ll forget about ev'rything

… This MAGA map makes you feel so bold
It's ownin’ libs from Fox News you’ve been told
And it's taken you so long
To find out you were wrong
When you thought they’d vote for everyone

… You used to think that it was so easy
You used to say that it was so easy
But you're lyin', you're lyin' now
Win this year and then you'd be happy
Rig ‘24 and then you'd be happy
But you're cryin', you're cryin' now

 

Girl Fight!

Liz Cheney Trolls Kari Lake on Twitter After Election Loss: 'You're Welcome'

 

That's great.

 

Wyoming senator who voted against certifying Pennsylvania's 2020 election results bluntly throws support behind DeSantis as the 'leader' of the Republican party

 

I’m sorry, Rep. from where?