Gambling Thread

In Mississippi you can build your bets online through the casino apps, but you have to actually go to the casino to place the bet.
I don't mind. Probably keeps me out of trouble. It is a reason I've slowed down a lot during basketball season, though. It's not too hard to find a time to get over there at some point in the week before a football game. But since the basketball lines don't come out until the day of (or at most the day before) a game, it's hard to get there that day. And if you can't find a time to go early, before the runners get there and start squatting at the kiosks for hours on end, forget about it.

 

I can’t imagine going to a brick and mortar after using the app on my iPad. I do a guys weekend every year for Super Bowl and the ability to bet from home in NJ before I left was a factor in deciding against going to Vegas (along with the painful flight prices).

 

The moment Mahomes was getting looked at, I got WAY too uncomfortable on Jags +7.5 in-game. Whew.

 

Tried an experiment at the start of the playoffs. Since every team still had plus-odds to win the Super Bowl, I put down $5 each on five teams (Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, 49ers and Eagles). This week, with the Cowboys still at +1000 I threw another $5 on them as an odds play/hedge since I figured their game vs. the 49ers was a toss-up.

The good news is, I'm guaranteed to cash a ticket after the Super Bowl. The bad news is, if it's anybody other than the Bengals (+800) I'll break even at best (Eagles and 49ers at +500) or actually lose money (Chiefs at +333) on the whole enterprise. Oh well. At least I'll have the game bet itself covered and I can use that week's entire budget on fun prop bets. That was kind of the point of it anyway.
I'm also 4-0 on playoff bets so far, so I've got that going for me.

 

That’s also a good way to stay engaged in the process as well. In 2020, Simmons talked me into a Bucs-Bills Super Bowl in Week 16 or so. I put a $150 free bet on it at +2200. Bucs beat the Packers and now I’m split. Bills-Chiefs. As a KC guy, do I just let it ride out? I waited and I remember when the Bills got up 9-0, I just hedged KC all over at +110… I remember that price on the commercial break. I think I got about $1100 down across a few books on Chiefs ML.

 

Put in my NFL bets early today and noticed something weird with the odds on the Eagles-49ers game.
Eagles at -2.5 had -118 odds, which seems high to begin with. But if you move it to -3 the odds jump to +102. Is it normal to have that big of a jump just for buying a half-point? I figured it would go down to -110 or -107, something like that, but not all the way into plus territory.
For comparison, Chiefs-Bengals is a pick'em line at -110 for both teams. You have to slide either side all the way to -1.5 before you get to plus odds, and even then it's only +100.

 

Avello from Draft Kings said the field goal in Jax-KC swung $1 billion in wagers, worldwide.

 

Also a function of the total as well. -3 is a key number is any game but even more so in a matchup like 49ers/Eagles, where you'll have good defenses (or bad offenses, as would be the case in about 20 NFL teams). Paying 20 cents to get onto the +3 isn't that unusual. You'll see those bumps to reach 6, 7, 8, 10 and even 13 now.

I rarely buy half-points anymore but I wouldn't dismiss it for 49ers-Eagles.

 

The big thing on TIkTok right now is the $10 to $10K challenge in 10 days. You start with 10 bucks and double it every day. The first guy I saw doing it made it to Day 9 before losing. Basically, he’d bet four highly probably NBA props like 20+ points for Luka and 10+ for rebounds for Vucevich. Combined, they’d pay at basically even money.

I’ve seen about a dozen other people join in on it. The hardest part to me would be after you win five or six in a row, are you really gonna be able to put a grand or two on your next bet?