2023 Baseball Hall of Fame Class

A one week until announcement update
Through 164 ballots (about 41.4 percent of last year's total, those over 50 percent):

Rolen 79.9 (plus 11 votes, missed by 47 last year)
Helton 79.3 (plus 26 votes, missed by 91)
Wagner 72.6 (plus 25 votes, missed by 95)
Andruw Jones 68.3 (plus 22 votes, missed by 133)
Sheffield 64 (plus 24 votes, missed by 136)
Beltran 56.1


Of note, Kent is also plus 26 in his last year on ballot but that only has him a 49.4 percent and A-Rod is at 47.9 (plus 2 votes, missed by 161)

 

A little more than 24 hours out and it's looking like no one will be joining McGriff this summer.

Rolen's going to fall short unless there's a miracle surge on unknown ballots and Helton started too far back despite this significant gains.

 

A couple hours out and a little more than half the ballots are accounted for

Through 200 ballots (about 50.3 percent of last year's total, those over 50 percent):

Rolen 80.1 (plus 12 votes, missed by 47 last year)
Helton 78.6 (plus 35 votes, missed by 91)
Wagner 71.6 (plus 31 votes, missed by 95)
Andruw Jones 67.2 (plus 27 votes, missed by 133)
Sheffield 63.7 (plus 26 votes, missed by 136)
Beltran 54.2
Kent 50.2 (plus 26 votes in last year, missed by 167)

Of note, A-Rod is at 39.3 (plus 3 votes, missed by 161)

 

Is Beltran's middling support a one-year punishment for the Astros cheating scandal, or will this continue to hound him?

I like that Sheffield's support is going up. He seems sure to make it eventually.

Math ain't my bag, but does this forecast bode well for Rolen and Helton?

 

We won't know for sure on Beltran until net year because the overwhelming number of voters are dinging him for the scandal but aren't saying if it's a one-year punishment or a long-term thing.

Sheffield will have to be a Committee pick -- next year is his last on the ballot and he'd have to flip around 100 votes. If he had two or three more after this one I could see him getting in.


The math is bad for both. We don't know the total number of voters until after the announcement but last year there were 394. So if you assume that there are 194 outstanding ballots, Rolen has to have 35 flips of that total and Helton has to have 56 flips. Of course we don't know how many left were already voting for one or the other, which obviously reduces the total number of potential flips.

Rolen's total vote last year was eight percent lower than the canvassed number, which would be around 72 percent. Helton's difference was five percent, which would put him around 74. I think both are going to be very close and any outcome -- either, both or neither get in -- but I'm leaning towards no one.

 

My guess is Beltran gets a big bump next year. Might not be enough to get in w/a slam-dunk first-ballot inductee in Beltre, the debut of fascinating candidates Mauer & Utley and some or all of Rolen/Helton/Wagner likely to cross the finish line, but he's going to get in, especially as the electorate gets younger and there are fewer people who want to punish him for the Astros scandal and/or for being the second-best CFer in baseball when Ken Griffey Jr. was lapping the field.

 

I'd like to see if he stays over 50 percent, and if so, how high in the 50s he starts with. If Rolen and Helton are still on the ballot, I don't know big the bump will be because at best he'd be behind Beltre, Rolen, Helton and Wagner in terms of voting percentage, pending where Jones and Sheffield land.

Beltran's year is going to be 2026 -- Beltre gets the focus next year and Ichiro and Sabathia are the top guys for 2025 but 2026 does not have an automatic guy on it.

 

Maybe big bump is too generous a phrase...probably won't be an Alomar-like surge. But more than 10%? For sure. He'll probably lose some potential votes between next year's debuts and voters being swayed to vote for candidates who are almost in. It does feel like 2026 is probably the earliest he'll get in and the best bet for Jones. Ichiro might draw the crowd Cooperstown thought it'd get for Jeter.

 

Just put on MLB Network
If this is a sample of what they’ve been doing for two hours I’m glad I waited

 

Rolen makes it

 

Rolen in and thank god

 

Helton missed by 11 votes. Beltran starts at 46.5